NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	94		Excitement	8.6 [171]		MVP	Wayne Ellington (MEM): +21.3%
Denver Nuggets	99		Comeback	2.5 [492]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -22.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.09	0.12	0.00	7	79%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.05	0.00	11	64%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	6	67%	0.14	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.16,0	-0.11	0.09	-0.02	10	37%	0.13	4	-0.13	7	86%	0.05
Tony Allen	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	12	42%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	14	47%	0.04	5	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.14,0.07,0.07,-0.23	0.00	-0.24	-0.01	21	49%	0.04	2	-0.27	1	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.09	0.01	11	74%	0.31	4	-0.16	5	60%	-0.03
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.13	0.01	12	54%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.04
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.01	10	69%	0.21	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.07
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	6	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	60%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	0.03	10	59%	0.09	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.03
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	10	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.09	-0.02	6	64%	0.11	3	-0.19	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	3.4	29.7	16.8	28.6	2.6	40.6	149.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +19.8%

DEN +27.9%

MEM -1.0%

DEN +7.3%

MEM -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DEN	NBA	MEM	DEN	NBA
this game	17.2	14.0	15.4	101.1	108.8	104.1
season	16.5	14.4		102.9	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		104.0	99.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	18.8	17.7	15.5	17.0	17.2
DEN	12.3	15.0	13.9	14.9	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Arthur	2	3	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.02	4	-9	13	34.5	16.9	17.63	9.0	14.2	-5.19
Jerryd Bayless	28	31	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.10	6	-11	17	19.9	16.1	3.79	14.3	13.9	0.46
Tony Allen	44	42	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-5	5	15.1	19.2	-4.09	14.6	13.5	1.11
Marreese Speights	37	36	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-2	-1	17.9	16.8	1.16	15.2	13.3	1.94
Zach Randolph	63	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.21	0	-5	5	18.0	15.7	2.33	14.0	14.1	-0.12
Wayne Ellington	34	34	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-3	1	18.9	16.3	2.58	14.3	13.9	0.39
Rudy Gay	71	67	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	1	-7	16.5	19.6	-3.07	14.2	13.5	0.65
Marc Gasol	74	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.26	-7	2	-9	16.3	20.9	-4.65	13.7	15.3	-1.64
Mike Conley	67	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.27	-7	2	-9	16.7	18.8	-2.11	13.6	14.9	-1.26
Quincy Pondexter	45	46	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.27	-10	5	-15	17.7	16.9	0.81	13.4	14.7	-1.32

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	47	45	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-8	21	12.7	15.4	-2.64	18.3	16.3	1.97
Andre Iguodala	74	76	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.30	10	-5	15	13.4	16.5	-3.08	16.4	21.1	-4.74
Andre Miller	53	52	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.41	1	4	-3	14.4	13.4	0.99	18.5	15.7	2.80
Ty Lawson	68	71	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.29	5	0	5	14.5	12.6	1.95	17.0	18.0	-0.93
Danilo Gallinari	68	72	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	4	-3	14.5	12.5	2.01	16.4	20.0	-3.62
Kenneth Faried	47	52	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.09	6	-1	7	13.5	14.5	-1.01	16.3	18.4	-2.13
Corey Brewer	44	43	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.10	-1	6	-7	14.1	14.0	0.09	19.6	15.3	4.30
Kosta Koufos	44	46	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.00	1	4	-3	14.6	13.4	1.19	15.8	18.6	-2.77
Timofey Mozgov	10	8	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.08	-11	16	-27	14.7	13.9	0.76	22.7	16.7	6.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.31,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.6,0.53,0.69,0.63,0.76,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 92, POR 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.66,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.92,1	92.3%
MIL 81, UTA 84	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.3,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.69,0.6,0.47,0.61,0.79,0.95,0.99,1	92.2%
LAC 88, GSW 89	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.44,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.4,0.61,0.36,0.68,0.86,1	92.1%