NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	134		Excitement	11.0 [38]		MVP	Gary Neal (SAS): +51.1%
Houston Rockets	126		Comeback	9.6 [238]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -20.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0.51	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.31,0.31,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.51,0.51	0.21	0.29	-0.01	18	81%	0.55	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.14	0.23	0.00	12	73%	0.42	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Danny Green	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	14	50%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	6	83%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	69%	0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nando De Colo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.12,0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	0.07	-0.13	0.01	18	60%	-0.03	3	-0.05	9	89%	0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	6	57%	0.04	5	-0.21	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.05	-0.15	0.01	9	38%	-0.13	1	-0.08	8	100%	0.04

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.19,0.29,0.33,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.22	0.09	-0.00	21	70%	0.45	2	-0.14	12	100%	0.10
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.18,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.12	-0.02	18	49%	0.25	2	-0.11	5	40%	-0.07
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	6	81%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	11	58%	0.15	2	-0.06	14	79%	-0.00
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.05	0.00	11	77%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	10	40%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2	-0.20	-0.16	-0.05	-0.01	12	20%	-0.13	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	33.3	14.0	27.0	1.5	27.4	1.8	14.9	146.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +45.9%

HOU -11.3%

SAS +2.6%

SAS +9.7%

SAS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	HOU	NBA	SAS	HOU	NBA
this game	13.9	13.8	15.4	115.5	110.5	104.1
season	15.2	14.2		106.4	107.9
opponent	15.4	15.1		105.0	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	15.6	12.6	16.2	12.3	11.8	13.9
HOU	12.6	13.1	13.2	17.2	12.2	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	93	91	1.05	-0.55	1.61	0.41	22	-14	36	13.7	14.3	-0.61	14.2	12.3	1.81
Tim Duncan	70	70	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.24	17	-9	26	13.3	14.7	-1.35	14.3	13.0	1.21
Gary Neal	77	76	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.36	11	-3	14	13.8	13.9	-0.13	13.7	14.1	-0.39
Danny Green	95	93	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.22	9	-1	10	13.5	15.5	-1.97	13.9	13.4	0.50
Manu Ginobili	79	76	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.24	6	2	4	13.8	14.1	-0.32	14.2	13.0	1.22
Matt Bonner	8	7	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	3	2	10.0	14.1	-4.15	12.3	13.9	-1.60
Tiago Splitter	38	36	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	7	-6	14.9	13.3	1.61	14.2	13.6	0.59
DeJuan Blair	41	42	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.07	2	6	-4	15.5	13.0	2.51	12.1	14.8	-2.64
James Anderson	2	2	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	9	-10	1.5	14.1	-12.58	14.5	13.8	0.72
Patty Mills	5	5	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.07	-5	13	-18	15.2	13.8	1.40	7.6	14.1	-6.47
Nando De Colo	21	21	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	-0.06	-11	19	-30	14.7	13.7	1.04	13.2	13.9	-0.73
Boris Diaw	51	51	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	0.06	-16	24	-40	14.2	13.6	0.60	14.0	13.6	0.45

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Morris	51	52	0.25	-0.75	0.99	0.07	6	-14	20	14.2	13.5	0.70	14.5	13.4	1.12
Omer Asik	76	78	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.05	3	-11	14	13.4	14.7	-1.30	14.2	13.1	1.13
Toney Douglas	75	77	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.09	7	-15	22	14.5	12.4	2.14	13.5	14.5	-0.98
Daequan Cook	8	8	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.02	1	-9	10	12.9	13.9	-0.98	15.0	13.8	1.22
Carlos Delfino	85	86	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-10	12	13.5	14.7	-1.21	13.5	15.0	-1.58
Cole Aldrich	5	6	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	-3	-2	13.2	13.8	-0.62	6.5	14.3	-7.76
Jeremy Lin	89	91	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-4	0	13.5	14.9	-1.45	14.4	12.1	2.27
Patrick Patterson	47	46	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.21	-9	1	-10	13.2	14.2	-1.02	14.5	13.5	1.02
Greg Smith	33	32	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.34	-6	-2	-4	14.9	13.3	1.53	14.3	13.7	0.67
Chandler Parsons	89	91	-1.09	0.59	-1.69	-0.30	-27	19	-46	14.2	12.4	1.73	13.6	14.9	-1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.8,0.91,0.83,0.59,0.46,0.69,0.64,0.45,0.27,0.46,0.39,0.22,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 118, MIN 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.69,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.4,0.59,0.54,0.65,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.88,0.55,0.26,0.54,0.38,0.1,0.06,0,0	88.2%
BOS 112, MIA 106	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.32,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.84,0.8,0.71,0.32,0.27,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.09,0	87.4%
MIA 98, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.67,0.78,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.57,0.42,0.54,0.33,0.15,0.06,0.04,0	87.4%