NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	82		Excitement	6.6 [472]		MVP	Isaiah Thomas (SAC): +13.3%
Sacramento Kings	91		Comeback	2.4 [548]		LVP	Glen Davis (ORL): -19.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	13	65%	0.19	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	10	58%	0.09	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	15	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Kyle O'Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeQuan Jones	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.05	-0.03	10	27%	-0.09	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Vucevic	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.00	5	25%	-0.08	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Glen Davis	-0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.10	0.01	19	47%	-0.05	5	-0.14	5	80%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.01	10	61%	0.15	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.05
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.09	0.02	7	83%	0.24	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.01	4	75%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	9	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.05	0.01	13	47%	0.06	4	-0.09	10	70%	-0.00
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	11	50%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	7	31%	-0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
John Salmons	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	8	12%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	5	8%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	27.0	16.8	25.6	1.7	39.5	136.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +23.8%

SAC +5.7%

SAC +17.5%

SAC +1.9%

SAC +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAC	NBA	ORL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.3	13.6	15.4	82.0	91.9	104.1
season	15.5	15.0		100.3	104.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		109.4	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.3	15.5	14.9	15.4	15.3
SAC	12.4	14.5	15.1	12.8	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
E'Twaun Moore	25	26	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.10	1	-10	11	13.5	15.9	-2.41	13.8	13.6	0.27
Gustavo Ayon	21	21	0.12	-0.62	0.75	0.10	1	-10	11	11.6	16.3	-4.71	13.7	13.6	0.03
Andrew Nicholson	49	46	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.13	8	-17	25	14.3	16.3	-1.97	14.4	13.0	1.43
DeQuan Jones	9	9	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-10	11	15.0	15.3	-0.32	15.2	13.5	1.73
Maurice Harkless	40	38	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	-5	1	16.4	14.5	1.89	13.4	13.8	-0.41
Kyle O'Quinn	6	5	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	-4	-1	20.8	14.9	5.90	13.4	13.7	-0.26
JJ Redick	72	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-5	1	14.8	16.5	-1.68	13.9	13.0	0.90
Nikola Vucevic	43	45	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.10	-13	4	-17	15.8	14.9	0.92	12.5	14.6	-2.12
Arron Afflalo	79	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.25	-11	2	-13	15.2	15.7	-0.54	13.4	14.8	-1.48
Glen Davis	81	81	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.33	-9	0	-9	16.2	11.5	4.65	13.9	12.7	1.20
Jameer Nelson	75	73	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.34	-10	1	-11	15.9	13.5	2.41	13.6	13.8	-0.27

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jimmer Fredette	44	46	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.27	13	-4	17	13.3	13.9	-0.63	15.2	15.4	-0.13
Thomas Robinson	35	36	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.31	6	3	3	13.5	13.7	-0.25	14.7	15.6	-0.89
Isaiah Thomas	60	61	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.28	6	3	3	14.1	13.0	1.07	14.6	16.4	-1.88
Charles Hayes	41	40	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	5	-1	13.1	14.0	-0.90	15.7	15.0	0.77
Marcus Thornton	49	49	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	7	-5	14.6	12.8	1.79	15.3	15.2	0.11
John Salmons	61	61	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.08	5	4	1	12.9	14.8	-1.86	14.8	16.1	-1.37
DeMarcus Cousins	64	67	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.01	6	3	3	14.1	12.8	1.35	15.3	15.3	-0.02
Aaron Brooks	39	39	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	6	-3	13.0	14.1	-1.07	16.4	14.6	1.88
Jason Thompson	58	57	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.09	2	7	-5	13.6	13.7	-0.15	15.3	15.2	0.10
Francisco Garcia	44	44	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.05	-2	11	-13	14.0	13.4	0.60	16.0	14.7	1.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.75,0.81,0.71,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.53,0.64,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.89,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 85, LAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.82,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.73,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.93,0.98,0.98,1	92.9%
PHX 81, IND 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.71,0.66,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.84,1	92.3%
SAS 85, POR 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.58,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.85,0.85,0.94,0.99,1	90.9%