NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	108		Excitement	6.1 [575]		MVP	Joakim Noah (CHI): +26.4%
Detroit Pistons	104		Comeback	6.3 [273]		LVP	Nate Robinson (CHI): -12.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joakim Noah	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.14	0.14	0.02	19	67%	0.34	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.03
Kirk Hinrich	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.10	0.13	-0.02	5	93%	0.25	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Carlos Boozer	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.09	0.02	19	63%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	-0.00	-0.03	2	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	13	57%	0.04	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	15	47%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Nate Robinson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	8	12%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.13	0.12	-0.00	9	83%	0.25	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	87%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.14	-0.03	0.05	12	75%	0.14	2	-0.08	8	100%	0.04
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	54%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.02	0.04	11	72%	0.11	3	-0.09	7	86%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	43%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	13	46%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.7	28.4	17.8	25.3	2.6	39.0	139.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +23.2%

CHI +3.0%

CHI +23.7%

CHI +1.2%

DET -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DET	NBA	CHI	DET	NBA
this game	17.5	15.6	15.4	124.1	119.5	104.1
season	16.6	15.7		101.7	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.2		106.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	19.3	15.7	17.2	18.0	17.5
DET	15.0	15.6	17.9	14.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	79	79	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.39	10	-6	16	17.1	22.0	-4.95	15.1	20.4	-5.26
Kirk Hinrich	65	66	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.34	11	-7	18	17.0	19.1	-2.12	15.7	15.4	0.29
Joakim Noah	80	81	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.31	12	-8	20	17.2	21.4	-4.27	15.4	18.8	-3.48
Carlos Boozer	71	69	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.36	10	-6	16	17.5	17.6	-0.07	15.7	15.1	0.61
Marco Belinelli	72	71	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-8	20	17.6	17.0	0.61	16.0	13.9	2.11
Nate Robinson	22	21	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	11	-18	19.1	17.0	2.12	15.4	15.7	-0.29
Taj Gibson	23	24	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.10	-14	18	-32	18.7	17.1	1.68	16.0	15.4	0.61
Jimmy Butler	23	24	-0.32	0.82	-1.13	0.10	-14	18	-32	18.7	17.1	1.68	16.0	15.4	0.61

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Maggette	26	25	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.10	9	-13	22	17.1	15.0	2.16	20.7	16.2	4.51
Andre Drummond	41	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-7	10	15.9	15.3	0.62	19.1	16.3	2.79
Rodney Stuckey	66	65	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.47	9	-13	22	15.0	17.6	-2.66	17.8	16.5	1.29
Kyle Singler	39	40	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	3	-10	17.2	14.3	2.82	18.0	17.1	0.91
Charlie Villanueva	37	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.21	0	-4	4	16.0	15.3	0.70	17.5	17.5	-0.06
Jason Maxiell	48	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	2	-8	15.7	15.5	0.25	18.2	16.7	1.54
Greg Monroe	46	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	3	-10	15.3	15.9	-0.62	16.3	19.1	-2.79
Brandon Knight	67	67	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.31	-10	6	-16	14.9	17.9	-3.05	16.2	21.8	-5.64
Tayshaun Prince	65	66	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.33	-11	7	-18	15.1	17.0	-1.88	16.5	20.7	-4.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.77,0.73,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.47,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.28,0.1,0.08,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 117, HOU 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.7,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.22,0.3,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	91.9%
CHI 107, BOS 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.8,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.23,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0	91.8%
CHH 91, ATL 82	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.22,0.1,0.04,0,0,0	91.5%