NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	92		Excitement	7.9 [267]		MVP	Paul George (IND): +26.9%
Indiana Pacers	89		Comeback	3.5 [297]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -16.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.01	16	59%	0.19	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Andre Miller	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.06,0.18,0.18	0.02	0.15	-0.01	11	58%	0.25	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.04	0.01	9	91%	0.24	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Kosta Koufos	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	8	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.01	10	36%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Jordan Hamilton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	12	38%	0.00	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	7	29%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	10	10%	-0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.27	0.27	0.13	0.15	0.00	15	71%	0.34	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.06,0	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	15	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	8	67%	0.06	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.03
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	7	56%	0.05	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
David West	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.07	-0.17	0.02	12	69%	0.05	2	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.06	-0.02	10	38%	-0.03	3	-0.10	6	67%	-0.05
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	5	20%	-0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	29.6	15.7	26.2	1.8	32.2	131.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +8.9%

DEN +11.7%

IND -15.6%

DEN +42.1%

DEN +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	IND	NBA	DEN	IND	NBA
this game	15.7	15.9	15.4	101.1	97.8	104.1
season	14.4	16.1		108.4	102.4
opponent	15.5	15.4		99.0	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.4	15.0	16.3	16.3	15.7
IND	15.2	16.3	14.4	18.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	60	58	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.29	17	-14	31	14.5	18.1	-3.61	16.0	15.8	0.18
Andre Miller	50	50	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.18	13	-10	23	14.4	17.3	-2.92	14.8	17.3	-2.47
Danilo Gallinari	66	65	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.42	3	0	3	15.9	15.2	0.71	16.6	14.3	2.28
Andre Iguodala	68	69	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	2	-1	16.9	12.3	4.51	16.2	15.0	1.23
Ty Lawson	67	66	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.54	-3	6	-9	16.0	14.9	1.08	15.7	16.6	-0.92
Corey Brewer	53	53	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	-2	7	14.8	17.0	-2.16	16.4	15.3	1.02
Jordan Hamilton	15	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	1	1	12.2	16.4	-4.21	17.0	15.7	1.28
Kosta Koufos	37	39	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.07	-9	12	-21	17.5	14.5	3.03	16.4	15.6	0.83
Kenneth Faried	39	40	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.15	-14	17	-31	17.4	14.5	2.88	14.6	16.9	-2.29

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lance Stephenson	57	58	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.48	13	-16	29	16.5	15.0	1.54	17.3	13.0	4.31
Paul George	66	66	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.45	12	-15	27	15.8	16.4	-0.59	16.4	14.0	2.36
Roy Hibbert	56	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.34	7	-10	17	15.6	16.4	-0.76	16.6	14.3	2.28
David West	66	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.44	9	-12	21	14.3	20.2	-5.88	16.5	13.6	2.92
George Hill	69	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.50	9	-12	21	16.3	14.6	1.71	16.0	14.6	1.42
D.J. Augustin	22	21	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	9	-21	14.6	16.3	-1.71	14.6	16.0	-1.42
Tyler Hansbrough	25	25	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	9	-21	20.2	14.3	5.88	13.6	16.5	-2.92
Gerald Green	26	25	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.05	-14	11	-25	16.6	15.7	0.95	13.1	16.7	-3.63
Ian Mahinmi	35	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.07	-10	7	-17	16.4	15.6	0.76	14.3	16.6	-2.28
Sam Young	33	33	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.05	-17	14	-31	14.7	16.6	-1.89	13.7	16.9	-3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.41,0.19,0.33,0.47,0.78,0.32,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 104, GSW 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.47,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.52,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.71,0.56,0.15,0	90.9%
CLE 107, MIN 103	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.31,0.69,0.55,0.26,0	90.4%
TOR 98, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.39,0.48,0.42,0.61,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.48,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.16,0	90.1%