NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	113		Excitement	9.3 [103]		MVP	Louis Williams (ATL): +61.3%
Atlanta Hawks	111		Comeback	8.3 [50]		LVP	Dion Waiters (CLE): -17.3%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anderson Varejao	0.30	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.3	0.10	0.21	0.00	12	67%	0.36	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.07
Alonzo Gee	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13,-0.17,-0.23,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,0.22	-0.14	0.37	0.01	12	45%	0.44	6	-0.23	5	80%	0.01
Jeremy Pargo	0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.09	0.13	0.01	13	79%	0.33	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Daniel Gibson	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12	0.01	0.10	-0.01	10	45%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donald Sloan	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	71%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Samardo Samuels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17	-0.02	-0.16	-0.00	16	54%	-0.05	4	-0.12	7	100%	0.04

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.32,0.61	0.61	0.14	0.47	-0.00	10	72%	0.61	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	-0.00	0.02	6	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	19	53%	0.22	3	-0.17	9	56%	-0.05
Al Horford	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	0.00	12	52%	0.07	3	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.03	9	62%	0.07	1	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	5	20%	-0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	11	50%	0.14	4	-0.25	8	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	1.8	28.0	15.5	28.6	1.7	33.5	136.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +9.4%

ATL -2.0%

CLE +37.7%

ATL -2.8%

CLE +7.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ATL	NBA	CLE	ATL	NBA
this game	16.3	14.5	15.4	121.5	118.1	104.1
season	15.5	15.1		102.5	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.2		102.8	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	17.4	14.2	15.9	18.0	16.3
ATL	14.7	16.5	14.1	12.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Pargo	60	62	1.00	-0.50	1.50	0.53	16	-14	30	16.1	16.8	-0.69	14.8	13.8	0.99
Alonzo Gee	62	63	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.32	10	-8	18	15.9	17.3	-1.37	14.8	13.8	0.99
Daniel Gibson	54	54	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.49	-2	4	-6	17.4	14.8	2.62	13.0	16.4	-3.41
Tristan Thompson	63	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.44	-1	3	-4	16.1	16.9	-0.87	15.3	12.8	2.53
Anderson Varejao	71	70	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.51	-6	8	-14	15.7	18.4	-2.65	13.6	16.9	-3.29
Dion Waiters	58	61	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.21	0	2	-2	15.7	17.4	-1.65	14.2	15.0	-0.82
Tyler Zeller	46	48	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.23	10	-8	18	17.3	15.4	1.81	15.3	13.6	1.73
Samardo Samuels	5	5	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	2	-2	21.0	16.1	4.92	13.0	14.6	-1.55
Donald Sloan	21	20	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.00	-7	9	-16	16.5	16.3	0.17	15.0	14.3	0.74
Omri Casspi	25	24	-0.37	0.87	-1.24	-0.08	-10	12	-22	16.9	16.1	0.73	15.1	14.2	0.88

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ivan Johnson	19	18	0.51	-1.01	1.53	-0.01	18	-20	38	13.3	14.8	-1.44	16.8	16.2	0.54
Zaza Pachulia	41	40	0.21	-0.71	0.93	0.13	3	-5	8	14.7	14.3	0.38	17.2	15.7	1.46
Louis Williams	51	50	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.01	1	-3	4	14.1	14.9	-0.85	17.2	15.3	1.94
Al Horford	81	80	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.25	5	-7	12	14.7	13.2	1.53	16.6	14.5	2.19
Anthony Morrow	12	11	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.07	-7	5	-12	16.7	14.1	2.52	17.4	16.2	1.16
Devin Harris	65	66	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	4	-10	14.4	14.7	-0.32	16.5	16.1	0.38
Jeff Teague	77	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.55	4	-6	10	14.2	15.6	-1.37	15.6	19.5	-3.83
Josh Smith	65	66	-0.86	0.36	-1.23	-0.48	-13	11	-24	14.2	15.0	-0.72	15.9	17.3	-1.39
DeShawn Stevenson	59	58	-1.35	0.85	-2.20	-0.91	-15	13	-28	15.0	13.6	1.34	15.5	17.7	-2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.8,0.74,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.64,0.55,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.6,0.71,0.85,0.85,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.71,0.61,0.45,0.17,0.15,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 86, TOR 82	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.67,0.47,0.36,0.45,0.26,0	90.1%
CLE 95, MIL 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.67,0.73,0.83,0.8,0.67,0.45,0.29,0.05,0.01,0	89.9%
NOP 103, POR 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.7,0.65,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.71,0.53,0.47,0.11,0.14,0.42,0	89.7%