NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	95		Excitement	7.1 [419]		MVP	Drew Gooden (CLE): +16.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	86		Comeback	7.9 [122]		LVP	LeBron James (CLE): -18.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.04	0.02	20	67%	0.22	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Larry Hughes	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.03	0.03	17	54%	0.09	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.04
Daniel Gibson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	4	40%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Donyell Marshall	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	15	35%	-0.04	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	13	29%	-0.14	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.02	5	84%	0.17	4	-0.10	9	67%	-0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	-0.02	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	25%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	0.01	-0.03	18	31%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	4	62%	0.06	3	-0.15	5	40%	-0.04
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	0.01	-0.11	0.01	23	46%	-0.11	0	0.00	11	64%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	1.7	26.4	15.5	27.4	2.6	35.3	135.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +4.6%

MIL -3.3%

CLE +34.4%

CLE +14.6%

MIL -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIL	NBA	CLE	MIL	NBA
this game	17.8	15.3	15.4	108.0	100.0	104.5
season	16.0	15.2		103.2	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.6		109.9	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	18.3	17.0	19.8	16.3	17.8
MIL	15.1	15.7	14.5	15.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	61	59	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.22	20	-11	31	17.3	19.0	-1.70	16.4	12.7	3.67
Eric Snow	71	69	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.32	14	-5	19	17.6	18.7	-1.10	15.8	13.0	2.81
Drew Gooden	67	64	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.31	12	-3	15	18.2	16.6	1.57	14.8	16.5	-1.67
Larry Hughes	65	64	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.34	7	2	5	18.5	15.9	2.64	14.6	17.0	-2.40
LeBron James	79	76	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.26	9	0	9	17.9	17.0	0.91	15.1	16.3	-1.18
Daniel Gibson	17	16	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.06	0	9	-9	15.9	18.3	-2.40	15.5	15.2	0.30
Donyell Marshall	17	18	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.08	-5	14	-19	17.4	17.9	-0.50	14.3	15.5	-1.17
Damon Jones	32	33	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.14	-3	12	-15	17.7	17.9	-0.21	15.5	15.1	0.37
Anderson Varejao	31	31	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	0.02	-9	18	-27	18.3	17.6	0.68	14.5	15.7	-1.21

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	28	29	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.07	1	-10	11	16.8	14.5	2.32	17.0	18.2	-1.27
Ruben Patterson	42	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-5	1	15.7	14.8	0.94	17.4	18.2	-0.76
Andrew Bogut	60	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.12	-3	-6	3	14.5	17.0	-2.56	18.0	17.4	0.59
Mo Williams	71	73	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.15	-3	-6	3	15.0	16.5	-1.47	18.1	16.5	1.63
Steve Blake	28	28	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-1	-7	16.3	14.7	1.58	17.4	18.0	-0.68
Charlie Bell	66	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.33	-5	-4	-1	15.3	15.2	0.01	17.9	17.6	0.22
Brian Skinner	60	64	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.25	-11	2	-13	15.3	15.2	0.09	18.2	16.8	1.41
Michael Redd	75	76	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.28	-12	3	-15	14.8	18.1	-3.25	17.7	18.2	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.67,0.73,0.83,0.8,0.67,0.45,0.29,0.05,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 100, LAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.33,0.42,0.51,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.76,0.67,0.39,0.29,0.03,0,0	92.1%
CHH 92, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.73,0.61,0.4,0.25,0.34,0.11,0,0	91.8%
ORL 86, NYK 78	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.22,0.09,0.02,0	91.7%