NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	93		Excitement	7.9 [263]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +29.2%
Chicago Bulls	92		Comeback	177.6 [4]		LVP	Beno Udrih (MIL): -25.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.08,0.17,0.42,0.29	0.10	0.19	-0.00	14	62%	0.29	0	0.00	1	100%	0.03
Ekpe Udoh	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.13	0.06	0.07	0.00	9	58%	0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Doron Lamb	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
John Henson	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	58%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Tobias Harris	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Monta Ellis	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	10	43%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Larry Sanders	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	9	30%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.13	-0.03	-0.09	0.01	5	50%	0.08	2	-0.20	2	50%	-0.01
Beno Udrih	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,-0.25	-0.01	-0.22	0.02	11	44%	-0.25	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.21

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.01	11	55%	0.15	2	-0.03	9	89%	0.07
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	19	47%	0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	0.01	11	45%	-0.05	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17	-0.17	-0.08	-0.14	-0.05	8	33%	-0.16	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.1,0.24,-0.19	-0.19	0.09	-0.29	-0.00	24	58%	-0.15	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.4	27.6	15.5	22.4	2.4	34.3	130.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +74.3%

CHI -31.1%

MIL +19.5%

CHI -16.6%

MIL +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.0	16.9	15.4	106.9	104.5	104.1
season	14.7	16.6		101.6	101.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		102.3	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.4	15.3	14.8	17.8	16.0
CHI	17.9	14.7	14.6	22.2	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	35	37	1.01	-0.51	1.52	0.25	26	-25	51	16.1	15.8	0.30	19.4	15.1	4.30
Doron Lamb	25	26	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.26	25	-24	49	15.6	16.1	-0.51	19.8	15.7	4.12
Mike Dunleavy	47	49	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.38	17	-16	33	16.4	15.5	0.91	18.2	15.4	2.80
Ekpe Udoh	49	51	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.47	11	-10	21	17.0	14.7	2.27	17.5	16.1	1.39
Beno Udrih	48	50	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.25	18	-17	35	15.8	16.2	-0.43	17.8	15.9	1.89
John Henson	30	29	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.04	-6	7	-13	14.0	17.0	-3.05	16.4	17.2	-0.74
Brandon Jennings	49	49	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.18	-14	15	-29	16.5	15.3	1.15	16.4	17.6	-1.12
Samuel Dalembert	37	36	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	-0.03	-9	10	-19	14.9	16.7	-1.77	15.7	17.8	-2.02
Larry Sanders	23	23	-0.29	0.80	-1.09	0.29	-20	21	-41	17.8	15.3	2.53	14.1	17.9	-3.81
Tobias Harris	40	39	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	0.09	-16	17	-33	15.5	16.4	-0.91	15.4	18.2	-2.80
Monta Ellis	52	51	-0.53	1.03	-1.56	0.26	-27	28	-55	15.8	16.1	-0.30	15.1	19.4	-4.30

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	37	35	0.41	-0.91	1.31	0.35	2	-3	5	14.7	18.5	-3.82	14.4	17.0	-2.62
Jimmy Butler	24	21	0.26	-0.76	1.03	0.32	-2	1	-3	16.5	17.1	-0.61	14.8	16.3	-1.52
Nate Robinson	17	18	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	11	-23	20.4	16.1	4.30	15.0	16.2	-1.22
Kirk Hinrich	71	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.59	11	-12	23	16.1	20.4	-4.30	16.2	15.0	1.22
Luol Deng	87	86	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	1	-3	16.8	30.0	-13.21	16.1	5.0	11.09
Joakim Noah	69	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.65	3	-4	7	17.5	14.8	2.68	16.0	15.6	0.40
Richard Hamilton	65	67	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.82	2	-3	5	17.3	15.9	1.39	16.2	15.3	0.86
Carlos Boozer	70	69	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.64	-7	6	-13	17.5	14.6	2.93	16.7	13.2	3.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.9,0.8,0.73,0.53,0.46,0.6,0.45,0.72,0.68,0.57,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 84, UTA 83	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.83,0.76,0.75,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.85,0.77,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.77,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.55,0.71,0.66,0.63,0	91.3%
SAC 94, UTA 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.88,0.82,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.89,0.92,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.79,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.42,0	90.6%
GSW 113, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.88,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.59,0.47,0.28,0.69,0.55,0.57,0.47,0	90.0%