NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	89		Excitement	9.5 [89]		MVP	Toney Douglas (HOU): +27.3%
Houston Rockets	93		Comeback	5.9 [211]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -36.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	7	47%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Carlos Boozer	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	14	43%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Marco Belinelli	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	7	56%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Joakim Noah	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	9	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.04
Richard Hamilton	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	10	20%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	0.01	5	33%	-0.08	4	-0.08	2	0%	-0.05
Nate Robinson	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.04,-0.19	-0.04	-0.14	0.01	22	46%	-0.03	2	-0.15	2	100%	0.04
Luol Deng	-0.36	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.36	-0.07	-0.25	0.04	20	43%	-0.24	3	-0.12	4	100%	0.03

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,0.22,0.27	0.27	0.03	0.25	0.01	4	69%	0.38	2	-0.11	8	100%	0.07
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.00	16	54%	0.13	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.06	0.04	13	62%	0.14	3	-0.09	3	67%	0.01
Greg Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	7	57%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	0.05	-0.18	0.01	14	68%	0.15	6	-0.30	13	69%	-0.05
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.18	-0.09	-0.00	9	22%	-0.11	5	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.16	-0.14	-0.00	8	22%	-0.11	4	-0.19	2	0%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	2.3	28.5	15.4	28.2	1.0	41.6	138.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +77.4%

HOU +19.7%

CHI -18.3%

CHI -40.3%

HOU +11.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	HOU	NBA	CHI	HOU	NBA
this game	15.8	13.0	15.4	89.0	93.0	104.1
season	16.6	14.2		101.7	107.9
opponent	15.4	15.2		105.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.9	14.2	17.5	16.5	15.8
HOU	13.9	14.6	12.0	11.6	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	12	12	0.29	-0.79	1.09	-0.06	12	-16	28	11.5	16.3	-4.84	15.2	12.7	2.42
Carlos Boozer	54	52	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	1	-6	16.1	15.3	0.76	12.9	13.2	-0.24
Richard Hamilton	37	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.07	-7	3	-10	16.3	15.4	0.85	12.9	13.1	-0.28
Kirk Hinrich	49	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	2	-8	15.1	16.4	-1.37	12.7	13.3	-0.56
Nate Robinson	54	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.36	2	-6	8	15.7	15.9	-0.20	12.7	13.5	-0.86
Jimmy Butler	60	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.42	3	-7	10	16.1	15.3	0.81	13.7	12.0	1.75
Taj Gibson	62	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-7	10	15.7	15.9	-0.17	13.1	12.9	0.28
Joakim Noah	84	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.34	-6	2	-8	15.6	16.7	-1.10	13.0	13.1	-0.03
Luol Deng	88	88	-0.79	0.29	-1.09	-0.32	-16	12	-28	16.3	11.5	4.84	12.7	15.2	-2.42

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toney Douglas	45	45	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.49	7	-3	10	13.1	13.0	0.05	16.4	15.2	1.20
Chandler Parsons	81	83	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.41	9	-5	14	13.1	12.9	0.18	15.7	15.9	-0.15
Patrick Patterson	79	80	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-3	10	12.5	15.1	-2.60	15.7	15.9	-0.17
James Harden	90	90	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.27	6	-2	8	12.6	17.0	-4.40	15.8	15.3	0.51
Omer Asik	81	83	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.27	4	0	4	13.5	11.3	2.19	16.0	14.6	1.34
Greg Smith	38	35	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	8	-12	13.9	12.5	1.38	16.1	15.6	0.50
Marcus Morris	31	29	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	10	-16	13.5	12.8	0.64	14.7	16.2	-1.46
Jeremy Lin	55	55	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	-0.11	-3	7	-10	13.0	13.1	-0.05	15.2	16.4	-1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.45,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.41,0.52,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.53,0.64,0.53,0.33,0.15,0.29,0.16,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 85, IND 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.84,1	89.7%
CHI 105, MIN 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.61,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.58,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.31,0.73,1	89.4%
ATL 94, BOS 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.52,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.53,0.53,0.28,0.25,0.1,0.16,0.47,1	89.2%