NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	7.4 [346]		MVP	Jason Richardson (PHI): +38.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	106		Comeback	7.4 [277]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -8.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.07	0.12	-0.01	18	55%	0.21	0	0.00	8	87%	0.06
Jonas Valanciunas	0.04	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	61%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	56%	0.03	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	10	59%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	5	40%	0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	0.00	-0.05	0.00	21	50%	0.07	2	-0.11	2	0%	-0.05
Kyle Lowry	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	14	36%	-0.03	2	-0.06	8	37%	-0.17

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.15	0.22	-0.01	14	68%	0.39	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35	0.35	0.18	0.17	-0.01	13	72%	0.35	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Thaddeus Young	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.07	0.03	13	60%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Lavoy Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	21	45%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	14	40%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	27.4	15.4	27.3	1.8	33.2	131.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +26.6%

PHI +18.4%

TOR -2.3%

PHI +11.1%

TOR -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	PHI	NBA	TOR	PHI	NBA
this game	15.5	15.5	15.4	105.4	114.0	104.1
season	16.1	15.5		104.4	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.3		104.2	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.1	17.7	14.5	15.5	15.5
PHI	16.5	12.8	16.2	16.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	50	50	0.28	-0.78	1.07	0.08	7	-15	22	15.2	15.8	-0.55	15.1	16.0	-0.94
Dominic McGuire	37	40	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.11	5	-13	18	15.4	15.5	-0.07	15.8	15.3	0.49
John Lucas III	5	4	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-10	12	16.4	15.4	0.98	18.7	15.3	3.40
Ed Davis	10	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-8	8	17.3	15.3	2.05	17.1	15.3	1.79
Linas Kleiza	31	32	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.08	-6	-2	-4	16.5	14.9	1.61	15.5	15.5	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	80	79	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.26	-8	0	-8	15.0	18.1	-3.03	15.1	17.9	-2.87
Kyle Lowry	58	58	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.23	-9	1	-10	14.4	17.3	-2.91	16.2	14.4	1.76
Amir Johnson	39	38	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	2	-12	16.7	14.6	2.19	16.1	15.1	0.94
Jose Calderon	74	73	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.28	-10	2	-12	15.2	16.7	-1.52	15.1	17.0	-1.92
DeMar DeRozan	81	82	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.29	-11	3	-14	15.8	13.1	2.74	15.3	16.6	-1.29

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	28	27	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.30	19	-11	30	16.3	15.2	1.13	14.5	15.9	-1.35
Jason Richardson	62	63	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.32	17	-9	26	14.9	16.7	-1.77	16.3	13.8	2.47
Thaddeus Young	76	77	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-2	12	15.1	17.2	-2.13	15.2	17.0	-1.84
Nick Young	56	54	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.29	5	3	2	16.0	14.7	1.32	15.2	15.8	-0.60
Jrue Holiday	78	77	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	7	-6	15.3	16.3	-0.92	15.5	15.2	0.34
Royal Ivey	11	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	8	-8	16.3	15.4	0.88	16.8	15.3	1.53
Lavoy Allen	47	49	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.22	6	2	4	15.1	15.9	-0.87	16.3	14.5	1.80
Spencer Hawes	30	30	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.02	-3	11	-14	16.1	15.2	0.84	16.2	15.1	1.07
Kwame Brown	12	11	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.13	-10	18	-28	17.1	15.3	1.82	12.2	15.9	-3.73
Evan Turner	65	66	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.08	-5	13	-18	15.5	15.4	0.09	15.0	16.7	-1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.39,0.26,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.15,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.63,0.67,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 77, SAS 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.6,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.27,0.38,0.72,0.87,0.87,1	91.9%
DEN 98, LAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.19,0.3,0.26,0.11,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.27,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.85,1	91.4%
TOR 90, LAC 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.23,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.39,0.54,0.72,0.55,0.92,1	90.9%