NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	6.6 [471]		MVP	Andre Miller (DEN): +22.6%
Denver Nuggets	93		Comeback	1.0 [591]		LVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): -26.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.19	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.18	0.06	0.05	7	129%	0.23	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.01	-0.01	9	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	10	58%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
LeBron James	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.09,0.03,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	23	52%	0.18	4	-0.14	6	83%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.01	-0.12	0.08	-0.03	12	29%	0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	8	41%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23	0.23	0.15	0.10	0.02	9	90%	0.29	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.11	0.06	0.00	12	75%	0.18	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.07	0.01	10	45%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.03	-0.02	8	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	-0.11	0.04	12	46%	-0.13	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.15	-0.11	-0.01	7	0%	-0.16	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.18,-0.23,-0.18,-0.27	-0.27	-0.12	-0.14	0.01	16	38%	-0.14	3	-0.13	10	60%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	3.4	31.7	18.6	27.4	3.5	36.5	145.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +69.6%

DEN -7.3%

DEN -25.0%

MIA +12.0%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	17.7	16.0	15.4	114.0	109.4	104.1
season	15.7	14.4		110.2	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.9		104.0	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	18.8	16.3	18.9	17.7
DEN	17.5	17.2	15.6	13.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	74	74	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-4	13	18.1	14.9	3.20	15.7	17.9	-2.19
Chris Bosh	67	66	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.22	10	-5	15	17.0	20.1	-3.12	15.7	17.1	-1.42
Shane Battier	60	58	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	2	1	17.6	17.8	-0.25	15.9	16.2	-0.33
Norris Cole	70	69	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	0	5	17.8	17.1	0.68	15.5	18.1	-2.62
Ray Allen	46	45	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	8	-11	18.4	16.8	1.63	15.0	17.1	-2.12
Mike Miller	43	43	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.09	5	0	5	17.2	18.1	-0.88	16.5	15.5	1.08
Mario Chalmers	12	13	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	-1	7	15.5	18.0	-2.53	19.0	15.5	3.54
Rashard Lewis	21	20	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.03	2	3	-1	16.2	18.1	-1.90	17.4	15.6	1.83
Joel Anthony	7	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	9	-13	24.9	17.0	7.82	15.3	16.1	-0.78
Udonis Haslem	30	30	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.09	-8	13	-21	17.6	17.7	-0.06	17.4	15.2	2.16

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	35	36	0.25	-0.75	0.99	-0.16	14	-19	33	17.1	15.2	1.89	18.1	17.4	0.75
Corey Brewer	32	34	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.00	6	-11	17	16.3	15.8	0.50	18.5	17.1	1.37
Andre Miller	44	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.38	6	-11	17	15.3	16.8	-1.46	18.4	16.8	1.63
Jordan Hamilton	33	35	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-3	1	18.6	14.3	4.31	16.5	18.5	-2.00
Kosta Koufos	25	24	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	5	-15	17.3	15.4	1.87	16.2	18.3	-2.09
Kenneth Faried	67	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.25	-8	3	-11	15.8	16.8	-0.99	17.6	18.0	-0.43
Ty Lawson	67	66	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.20	-11	6	-17	15.2	18.9	-3.67	18.0	16.5	1.47
Danilo Gallinari	56	58	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.28	-9	4	-13	15.1	17.8	-2.67	17.4	18.3	-0.91
Andre Iguodala	66	66	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.37	-11	6	-17	15.7	17.1	-1.42	17.7	17.6	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.36,0.39,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.25,0.29,0.06,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 105, MIA 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.23,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.26,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.25,0.15,0.06,0.27,0	93.6%
PHI 82, MIA 76	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.34,0.28,0.37,0.41,0.24,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.1,0.01,0	92.5%
IND 99, CLE 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.22,0.2,0.15,0.2,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.22,0.13,0.18,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.21,0.15,0.13,0	92.4%