NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	107		Excitement	4.6 [903]		MVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): +14.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	97		Comeback	2.5 [230]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -8.5%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.04	0.01	21	64%	0.17	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Quincy Pondexter	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.02	10	59%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	14	62%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jerryd Bayless	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.01	0.04	8	75%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	14	44%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Tony Allen	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	43%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike Conley	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.01	-0.05	12	33%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	58%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	10	71%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.02	0.04	21	67%	0.14	5	-0.11	9	100%	0.04
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	5	67%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	4	100%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	0.02	19	40%	-0.04	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	30.2	16.8	27.3	3.4	36.5	143.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +21.5%

OKC -4.0%

MEM +15.6%

MEM +18.4%

OKC -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	OKC	NBA	MEM	OKC	NBA
this game	16.9	14.6	15.4	117.6	105.4	104.1
season	16.5	14.8		102.9	109.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		100.6	99.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.1	16.5	17.4	20.1	16.9
OKC	13.1	17.8	15.3	12.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	84	85	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	1	8	16.9	17.0	-0.10	14.7	13.4	1.24
Rudy Gay	79	81	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.24	7	3	4	16.6	18.7	-2.02	14.8	13.2	1.58
Quincy Pondexter	52	50	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	2	6	17.3	16.3	1.01	15.0	14.0	0.97
Jerryd Bayless	31	32	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.07	13	-3	16	18.9	15.9	3.02	14.5	14.6	-0.07
Mike Conley	68	68	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.27	-1	11	-12	16.4	18.6	-2.21	14.1	16.0	-1.98
Wayne Ellington	20	21	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.05	9	1	8	19.0	16.3	2.68	15.0	14.5	0.55
Marreese Speights	15	15	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.02	7	3	4	17.7	16.7	0.98	12.9	14.9	-2.04
Zach Randolph	70	70	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.23	-2	12	-14	16.4	18.7	-2.28	14.8	13.9	0.94
Tony Allen	36	38	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	10	-10	15.7	17.7	-1.92	14.4	14.7	-0.35

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hasheem Thabeet	11	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-5	0	13.4	14.7	-1.38	19.5	16.5	2.97
Eric Maynor	19	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-6	2	14.2	14.7	-0.53	19.5	16.2	3.24
Nick Collison	28	28	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-6	2	13.7	14.9	-1.19	17.9	16.5	1.42
Thabo Sefolosha	40	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.01	-7	-3	-4	15.8	13.6	2.21	15.6	17.9	-2.27
Kendrick Perkins	58	57	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.22	-1	-9	8	15.1	13.7	1.33	16.5	17.6	-1.17
Serge Ibaka	77	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.21	-4	-6	2	14.4	15.7	-1.30	16.2	20.7	-4.50
Kevin Durant	85	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.25	-5	-5	0	14.5	15.9	-1.39	16.6	20.5	-3.93
Russell Westbrook	81	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	-3	-4	14.8	13.2	1.58	16.6	18.7	-2.02
Kevin Martin	61	61	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.11	-13	3	-16	14.2	15.4	-1.17	18.1	14.5	3.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 119, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.11,0.15,0.27,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
ATL 102, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.21,0.14,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0	94.3%
UTA 107, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%