NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	7.9 [259]		MVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): +34.4%
Atlanta Hawks	89		Comeback	2.6 [557]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -29.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.10	0.14	0.01	13	67%	0.31	2	-0.08	10	100%	0.09
LeBron James	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06	0.05	0.03	0.02	17	57%	0.11	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Mario Chalmers	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.14,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	10	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	0.00	7	43%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.02	12	65%	0.13	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	6	58%	0.08	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	44%	-0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.16	0.16	-0.02	8	100%	0.49	2	-0.14	4	100%	0.07
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.04	-0.00	11	68%	0.16	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Ivan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.06	0.02	9	56%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.03	-0.09	0.00	10	55%	0.02	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	6	14%	-0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	7	21%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.23,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.17	-0.12	0.00	19	30%	-0.20	3	-0.09	5	20%	-0.22

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.4	28.4	15.6	26.1	1.7	32.1	130.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.6%

MIA +2.0%

ATL -1.5%

MIA +6.5%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	16.1	16.3	15.4	106.7	100.0	104.1
season	15.7	15.1		110.2	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.9		102.8	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	17.0	17.5	15.1	16.1
ATL	16.3	16.5	16.8	15.5	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	69	69	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.34	7	-1	8	16.1	15.9	0.24	16.7	14.9	1.77
Rashard Lewis	39	41	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.36	6	0	6	15.5	16.6	-1.07	15.0	17.3	-2.31
Udonis Haslem	47	45	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	2	2	15.9	16.3	-0.37	15.3	17.2	-1.89
Ray Allen	46	48	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	4	-2	15.3	17.0	-1.67	15.3	17.4	-2.12
Norris Cole	38	39	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.22	2	4	-2	15.3	16.7	-1.35	16.5	16.1	0.48
LeBron James	67	66	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.15	0	6	-6	16.2	15.8	0.42	15.9	17.4	-1.57
Mike Miller	56	54	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	2	2	16.7	15.0	1.73	17.2	14.8	2.42
Shane Battier	36	36	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.08	5	1	4	15.9	16.2	-0.34	17.7	15.3	2.39
Mario Chalmers	47	47	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	6	-6	17.3	14.7	2.65	16.8	15.6	1.19

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Morrow	28	28	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.08	5	-11	16	15.6	16.6	-1.02	16.7	15.8	0.86
Ivan Johnson	9	9	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-6	6	17.6	16.1	1.43	16.9	16.0	0.89
Jeff Teague	51	50	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.21	3	-9	12	16.4	16.1	0.38	16.5	15.6	0.84
DeShawn Stevenson	43	44	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-9	12	17.0	15.6	1.32	16.8	15.4	1.44
Kyle Korver	56	54	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.14	-1	-5	4	16.6	15.8	0.81	16.6	15.4	1.18
Anthony Tolliver	28	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-3	0	15.0	16.8	-1.80	15.0	16.6	-1.62
Zaza Pachulia	26	27	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-2	-2	15.1	16.8	-1.68	15.8	16.2	-0.45
Josh Smith	66	66	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.23	-2	-4	2	16.8	14.8	1.95	16.3	15.5	0.77
Devin Harris	37	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	4	-14	16.2	16.3	-0.05	15.6	16.4	-0.85
Louis Williams	36	38	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.12	-9	3	-12	15.7	16.6	-0.87	15.1	16.8	-1.76
Al Horford	65	65	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.25	-12	6	-18	16.4	16.0	0.31	15.8	16.8	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.59,0.67,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.33,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.27,0.45,0.66,0.33,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 110, WAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.17,0.11,0.17,0.45,0.45,0.09,0.01,0	91.3%
MIN 89, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.26,0.37,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.05,0	91.2%
DET 88, LAC 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.31,0.37,0.53,0.15,0	91.0%