NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	88		Excitement	8.5 [171]		MVP	Eric Gordon (LAC): +36.5%
Los Angeles Clippers	87		Comeback	1.7 [705]		LVP	Mardy Collins (LAC): -24.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Iverson	0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.06,0.25	-0.10	0.32	-0.03	22	39%	0.33	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.01	18	45%	0.12	1	-0.03	8	62%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	53%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Kwame Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter Herrmann	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	24	47%	0.02	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.02

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.01,0.17,0.22,0.37	0.37	0.15	0.23	0.02	21	57%	0.37	0	0.00	12	100%	0.17
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.10	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.04
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	-0.05	0.00	9	75%	0.07	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Fred Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	11	44%	0.02	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	10	48%	-0.02	2	-0.04	9	67%	-0.03
Mardy Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.16	-0.10	-0.01	7	12%	-0.15	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.4	31.5	15.7	26.2	2.5	38.2	141.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +51.8%

LAC -34.1%

DET +17.0%

DET +8.5%

DET +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	LAC	NBA	DET	LAC	NBA
this game	17.4	15.9	15.5	102.3	100.0	106.4
season	16.9	15.7		104.9	100.7
opponent	15.1	15.7		109.8	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.0	15.1	18.1	19.9	17.4
LAC	17.3	14.9	16.2	15.3	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	49	50	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.55	1	0	1	17.1	17.8	-0.64	15.2	16.8	-1.56
Allen Iverson	74	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	-3	7	17.7	15.5	2.23	15.9	15.5	0.45
Antonio McDyess	43	43	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.55	0	1	-1	17.7	17.2	0.47	14.7	17.0	-2.26
Rodney Stuckey	77	79	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.43	1	0	1	17.2	19.4	-2.26	16.1	13.9	2.21
Amir Johnson	38	40	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	1	-1	18.6	16.5	2.08	16.9	15.0	1.92
Jason Maxiell	30	29	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.05	7	-6	13	16.7	17.8	-1.15	16.1	15.8	0.33
Tayshaun Prince	76	75	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.32	-6	7	-13	17.1	19.5	-2.36	15.5	18.0	-2.45
Walter Herrmann	11	11	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	3	-5	16.4	17.6	-1.21	14.8	16.0	-1.22
Kwame Brown	32	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.06	0	1	-1	17.7	17.2	0.48	17.4	14.9	2.48

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Jones	5	5	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.08	5	-6	11	18.4	15.7	2.67	14.6	17.6	-2.99
Paul Davis	8	7	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.02	3	-4	7	18.0	15.7	2.33	15.6	17.6	-2.01
Brian Skinner	31	32	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	4	-9	17.1	15.2	1.88	16.5	18.0	-1.46
DeAndre Jordan	32	30	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.20	-1	0	-1	16.6	15.5	1.07	18.4	16.9	1.51
Steve Novak	56	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.37	4	-5	9	15.3	17.0	-1.68	17.0	18.2	-1.17
Eric Gordon	80	80	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.50	3	-4	7	15.9	15.9	0.03	17.6	14.5	3.14
Mardy Collins	76	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	2	-5	15.3	20.2	-4.92	17.6	16.0	1.61
Marcus Camby	75	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.43	-4	3	-7	15.9	15.5	0.45	17.7	15.5	2.23
Al Thornton	72	72	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.46	-7	6	-13	15.7	16.7	-1.02	17.4	17.7	-0.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.61,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.31,0.37,0.53,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 95, SAS 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.56,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.22,0.02,0	91.5%
MIN 89, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.26,0.37,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.05,0	91.5%
PHI 107, CHA 105	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.48,0.38,0.12,0.17,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.45,0.45,0.16,0	91.5%