NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	93		Excitement	6.7 [452]		MVP	Corey Brewer (DEN): +14.7%
Houston Rockets	87		Comeback	1.1 [600]		LVP	James Harden (HOU): -23.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Brewer	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.07	0.00	9	64%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Danilo Gallinari	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	15	43%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	75%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0	-0.06	0.04	-0.02	11	54%	0.14	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	14	46%	-0.00	1	-0.02	7	29%	-0.06
Kosta Koufos	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	20	48%	0.02	4	-0.09	4	0%	-0.10
Andre Miller	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.14	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.04,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	14	59%	0.15	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.00	0.02	13	69%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	2	57%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	9	44%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	9	30%	-0.06	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	11	40%	-0.03	3	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	7	19%	-0.10	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.13,-0.19,-0.23	-0.23	-0.16	-0.07	-0.00	15	41%	-0.06	6	-0.17	7	71%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.5	24.5	16.2	27.6	2.3	33.6	131.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +48.7%

HOU -8.8%

DEN +12.1%

HOU -3.0%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.2	14.4	15.4	94.9	89.7	104.1
season	14.4	14.2		108.4	107.9
opponent	15.4	15.4		105.0	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	16.1	15.4	14.7	15.2
HOU	15.3	14.6	12.9	14.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	80	78	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-1	8	15.3	14.7	0.63	14.3	14.5	-0.15
Kosta Koufos	44	41	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.01	17	-11	28	14.8	15.5	-0.66	15.0	13.9	1.04
Corey Brewer	43	42	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	-5	16	15.3	15.1	0.25	14.9	14.0	0.89
Danilo Gallinari	84	84	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	-2	10	15.2	14.8	0.46	14.0	16.4	-2.35
Andre Iguodala	79	79	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.25	3	3	0	14.9	16.3	-1.40	14.4	14.3	0.09
Andre Miller	49	49	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	7	-8	15.3	15.1	0.16	14.2	14.5	-0.38
Kenneth Faried	72	70	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.29	-7	13	-20	15.1	15.3	-0.17	14.4	14.3	0.08
JaVale McGee	39	42	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.17	-8	14	-22	15.6	14.9	0.67	14.1	14.5	-0.45

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cole Aldrich	33	31	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.10	9	-15	24	13.2	14.9	-1.73	15.9	14.9	1.01
Patrick Patterson	62	64	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.31	8	-14	22	13.7	15.5	-1.82	15.3	15.0	0.33
Toney Douglas	30	29	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.09	-5	-1	-4	14.5	14.3	0.26	14.6	15.4	-0.85
Carlos Delfino	63	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-6	6	14.2	14.6	-0.41	15.0	15.5	-0.44
Jeremy Lin	67	69	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-5	4	14.3	14.5	-0.26	15.4	14.6	0.85
James Harden	78	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	0	-6	14.3	14.6	-0.28	14.8	16.9	-2.09
Marcus Morris	37	37	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.03	-15	9	-24	15.6	13.6	2.01	15.1	15.2	-0.12
Chandler Parsons	70	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.36	-4	-2	-2	14.3	14.5	-0.18	15.8	13.4	2.45
Omer Asik	45	46	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.01	-16	10	-26	15.4	13.4	2.04	14.5	15.8	-1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.1,0.07,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 99, BKN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.19,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0	94.3%
DET 101, TOR 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.14,0.17,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.31,0.23,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	94.0%
HOU 98, MEM 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.27,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.3,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.1,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.5%