NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	116		Excitement	9.9 [68]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIA): +81.1%
Miami Heat	119		Comeback	3.7 [552]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -16.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.26,0.3,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	10	81%	0.28	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.05	0.00	9	70%	0.16	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.15	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15	0.13	0.04	0.02	15	71%	0.17	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.16,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	15	65%	0.27	5	-0.19	4	50%	-0.03
Corey Brewer	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.03	-0.10	0.03	-0.04	17	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.04
Kosta Koufos	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	15	47%	-0.03	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.81	0.81	0.22	0.59	0.00	12	92%	0.85	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.24	0.18	0.02	22	74%	0.50	2	-0.10	10	90%	0.07
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.27,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.12	0.00	17	53%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.07
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	12	47%	0.09	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	5	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.5	33.0	15.6	21.8	3.5	37.3	140.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.3%

MIA +32.4%

DEN -63.1%

MIA +28.4%

MIA +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIA	NBA	DEN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	14.4	15.4	118.4	121.4	104.1
season	14.4	15.7		108.4	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.4		102.4	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	13.5	14.5	17.9	15.0
MIA	14.0	14.8	15.5	13.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	49	47	0.40	-0.90	1.30	0.11	10	-13	23	14.7	15.3	-0.57	13.8	15.0	-1.19
Corey Brewer	46	46	0.26	-0.76	1.03	-0.09	12	-15	27	14.8	15.1	-0.29	14.7	14.1	0.62
Andre Miller	56	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.29	5	-8	13	15.6	14.1	1.55	14.0	14.9	-0.89
Kosta Koufos	28	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	4	-11	14.1	15.3	-1.27	14.9	14.2	0.64
Ty Lawson	83	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.50	-2	-1	-1	14.8	15.9	-1.13	14.5	13.5	1.00
Andre Iguodala	80	81	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.48	-4	1	-5	14.8	15.6	-0.71	14.9	12.3	2.56
Kenneth Faried	72	72	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.40	-10	7	-17	15.5	13.5	2.07	14.5	14.1	0.45
Danilo Gallinari	76	75	-0.98	0.48	-1.45	-0.42	-19	16	-35	14.9	15.2	-0.32	14.0	15.9	-1.91

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	80	80	0.96	-0.46	1.41	0.46	17	-14	31	14.4	14.3	0.09	15.1	14.3	0.86
Dwyane Wade	69	68	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.52	7	-4	11	14.6	13.9	0.73	15.4	14.1	1.22
Mario Chalmers	69	68	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.36	12	-9	21	14.2	15.0	-0.79	15.8	13.0	2.80
LeBron James	80	79	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.36	7	-4	11	14.8	12.7	2.07	14.7	16.2	-1.46
Ray Allen	56	58	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.43	-4	7	-11	14.1	14.8	-0.70	15.7	13.9	1.87
Shane Battier	42	42	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	3	-3	15.4	13.6	1.79	14.8	15.1	-0.38
Udonis Haslem	11	11	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.04	-6	9	-15	15.2	14.3	0.87	14.5	15.0	-0.59
Rashard Lewis	33	32	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.01	-5	8	-13	13.0	15.1	-2.17	14.8	15.1	-0.25
Mike Miller	34	36	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.02	-6	9	-15	14.2	14.5	-0.35	13.0	16.1	-3.09
Joel Anthony	16	16	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.08	-7	10	-17	13.8	14.5	-0.71	13.2	15.3	-2.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.48,0.37,0.42,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.42,0.42,0.21,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.54,0.45,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 89, LAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.43,0.84,1	91.2%
SAS 87, PHX 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.34,0.25,0.32,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.37,0.68,0.83,1	91.0%
MIN 89, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.13,0.29,0.28,0.39,0.54,0.67,0.98,1	90.7%