NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	98		Excitement	12.4 [14]		MVP	Marcus Thornton (SAC): +32.3%
Indiana Pacers	106		Comeback	2.1 [841]		LVP	George Hill (IND): -41.0%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Thornton	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.32,0.32	0.09	0.22	-0.01	21	57%	0.38	1	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Thomas Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	6	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	33%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.01	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23	-0.01	-0.22	0.00	11	50%	-0.05	2	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27,-0.31,-0.31	-0.10	-0.21	0.00	15	41%	-0.21	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.04
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.37	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.33,-0.24,-0.3,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	27	35%	-0.35	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.12

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.08	-0.01	9	77%	0.21	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	3	60%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	12	40%	0.10	2	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	0.01	11	50%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22	-0.22	-0.05	-0.20	-0.02	15	50%	-0.01	4	-0.22	2	100%	0.03
David West	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.07	-0.15	0.02	21	39%	-0.22	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37,-0.44,-0.58,-0.58,-0.58,-0.5,-0.41,-0.41	-0.41	-0.06	-0.35	-0.00	17	46%	-0.31	3	-0.10	5	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	33.3	16.4	24.3	2.4	38.4	2.4	10.4	1.7	20.7	174.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -10.2%

IND +8.8%

IND +72.7%

SAC -26.2%

IND +4.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	IND	NBA	SAC	IND	NBA
this game	14.9	16.5	15.4	88.3	95.5	104.1
season	15.0	16.1		104.7	102.4
opponent	15.5	15.2		99.0	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	13.2	17.5	14.1	14.2	15.8	14.9
IND	15.0	16.0	18.9	16.4	16.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	24	27	0.38	-0.88	1.25	0.20	6	-14	20	13.3	15.3	-1.97	17.2	16.2	0.94
Thomas Robinson	22	21	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.10	-1	-7	6	14.4	15.0	-0.58	18.0	16.1	1.88
Jason Thompson	46	46	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-9	10	14.8	14.9	-0.12	16.4	16.5	-0.07
James Johnson	40	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.14	-9	1	-10	14.8	14.9	-0.15	15.6	17.0	-1.37
Isaiah Thomas	47	46	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-6	4	14.4	15.2	-0.81	15.2	17.4	-2.11
Charles Hayes	65	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.11	-8	0	-8	15.1	14.5	0.60	17.1	15.7	1.36
Marcus Thornton	80	80	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-7	6	15.0	14.5	0.45	16.8	15.7	1.11
Aaron Brooks	64	65	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	-2	-4	15.2	14.4	0.81	17.4	15.2	2.11
DeMarcus Cousins	82	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.34	-8	0	-8	14.9	14.7	0.25	15.9	18.0	-2.11
Tyreke Evans	85	85	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.32	-12	4	-16	15.1	14.0	1.14	16.1	17.7	-1.54

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	89	89	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.23	21	-13	34	16.2	17.8	-1.62	15.4	12.8	2.62
Roy Hibbert	84	84	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.28	18	-10	28	15.7	18.9	-3.19	15.2	14.0	1.20
Lance Stephenson	61	59	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.10	22	-14	36	16.5	16.5	-0.04	16.0	13.6	2.40
George Hill	87	87	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.27	15	-7	22	15.6	19.7	-4.07	15.1	13.9	1.27
Paul George	93	93	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.37	7	1	6	16.1	18.6	-2.55	14.7	15.9	-1.21
Tyler Hansbrough	41	40	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.21	-3	11	-14	17.0	16.2	0.87	13.7	15.5	-1.84
Gerald Green	48	48	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	10	-12	16.7	16.3	0.48	14.9	14.9	0.00
D.J. Augustin	24	24	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.01	-7	15	-22	19.7	15.6	4.07	13.9	15.1	-1.27
Sam Young	21	22	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.11	-13	21	-34	17.7	16.2	1.47	12.7	15.4	-2.73
Ian Mahinmi	18	19	-0.28	0.78	-1.07	0.01	-10	18	-28	19.4	15.9	3.54	13.1	15.2	-2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.86,0.79,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.87,0.83,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.72,0.8,0.73,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.86,0.84,0.54,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 118, PHX 125	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.72,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.89,0.77,0.91,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.68,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.78,0.84,1	88.9%
MIA 95, BKN 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.82,0.79,0.68,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.81,0.63,0.33,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.78,0.83,0.54,0.69,0.84,0.99,1,1	87.9%
DAL 115, BOS 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.82,0.79,0.74,0.64,0.74,0.82,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.46,0.71,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.62,0.54,0.67,0.73,1	87.7%