NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	89		Excitement	9.8 [73]		MVP	Lance Stephenson (IND): +9.7%
Charlotte Bobcats	90		Comeback	2.5 [582]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (IND): -40.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lance Stephenson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	9	75%	0.23	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	58%	0.12	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Roy Hibbert	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.04	0.01	4	70%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Sam Young	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ian Mahinmi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
George Hill	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	9	42%	-0.01	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
David West	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.02,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.15	-0.04	17	39%	-0.02	1	-0.14	2	0%	-0.03
Gerald Green	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.14	-0.08	-0.03	12	25%	-0.11	2	-0.09	4	0%	-0.06
Paul George	-0.38	0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.25,-0.38	-0.07	-0.30	0.01	11	50%	-0.11	5	-0.27	2	100%	0.01
D.J. Augustin	-0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.4	-0.05	-0.35	0.00	7	21%	-0.40	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.09	-0.00	8	55%	0.15	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.07	0.00	3	50%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	14	56%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	3	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Kemba Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.06,-0.04	-0.04	0.11	-0.15	-0.00	21	58%	0.00	1	-0.04	10	90%	0.03
Byron Mullens	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	10	30%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	7	14%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.05,-0.11,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.12	-0.17	-0.00	9	20%	-0.23	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.6	25.0	14.8	33.2	2.4	32.0	138.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +6.6%

CHA +15.7%

IND -46.3%

CHA +65.7%

CHA +8.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	CHA	NBA	IND	CHA	NBA
this game	15.9	14.7	15.4	93.7	96.8	104.1
season	16.1	15.6		102.4	99.9
opponent	15.4	15.5		109.8	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.5	15.3	15.6	16.3	15.9
CHA	16.2	14.0	11.5	18.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lance Stephenson	50	49	0.35	-0.85	1.19	-0.04	13	-14	27	15.3	16.6	-1.28	14.6	14.9	-0.31
Tyler Hansbrough	34	34	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.15	9	-10	19	14.5	16.7	-2.23	14.3	14.9	-0.63
Ian Mahinmi	46	45	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.04	4	-5	9	15.3	16.5	-1.25	13.4	15.9	-2.47
Sam Young	1	1	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.02	1	-2	3	20.0	15.9	4.14	14.0	14.7	-0.73
D.J. Augustin	35	34	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.35	11	-12	23	14.7	16.6	-1.98	14.5	14.8	-0.30
Roy Hibbert	45	44	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.37	-4	3	-7	16.1	15.7	0.35	15.7	13.8	1.87
Gerald Green	62	61	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.04	-16	15	-31	17.0	13.8	3.15	14.4	15.2	-0.81
Paul George	72	70	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.47	-4	3	-7	15.5	17.0	-1.50	14.8	14.5	0.26
David West	65	63	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.38	-11	10	-21	17.0	13.6	3.42	15.2	13.8	1.36
George Hill	65	64	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.50	-8	7	-15	16.3	15.0	1.37	15.1	13.8	1.35

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kemba Walker	62	63	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.39	13	-12	25	15.2	13.7	1.47	16.5	14.8	1.69
Gerald Henderson	65	68	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-9	19	14.9	14.3	0.57	16.8	13.7	3.08
Brendan Haywood	62	62	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.25	14	-13	27	15.1	14.0	1.13	15.6	16.5	-0.84
Byron Mullens	56	57	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.24	12	-11	23	14.9	14.4	0.57	17.8	13.1	4.71
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	38	40	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.01	12	-11	23	14.1	15.2	-1.08	16.6	15.4	1.24
Ramon Sessions	43	43	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.65	-12	13	-25	15.2	14.3	0.91	14.6	17.0	-2.46
Tyrus Thomas	37	38	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.23	-11	12	-23	14.4	14.9	-0.57	13.1	17.8	-4.71
Bismack Biyombo	31	33	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.22	-13	14	-27	14.0	15.1	-1.13	16.5	15.6	0.84
Reggie Williams	28	27	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.09	-9	10	-19	14.3	14.9	-0.57	13.7	16.8	-3.08
Ben Gordon	43	44	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	-0.09	-11	12	-23	14.1	15.3	-1.17	15.7	16.0	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.37,0.35,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.78,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.9,0.69,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 80, DEN 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.58,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.53,0.79,0.78,0.63,1	92.3%
POR 96, UTA 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.78,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.72,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.69,0.84,0.68,0.58,1	91.1%
CHI 99, NJN 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.78,0.9,0.9,0.78,0.58,1	90.6%