NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	131		Excitement	2.6 [1001]		MVP	JaVale McGee (DEN): +9.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Comeback	1.2 [941]		LVP	Michael Beasley (MIN): -9.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JaVale McGee	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.13	0.02	0.05	12	76%	0.09	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.13	0.00	0.05	7	77%	0.08	0	0.00	8	87%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	-0.00	0.05	10	71%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.03	5	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.08	-0.00	0.08	12	72%	0.03	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Julyan Stone	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	13	54%	0.01	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Timofey Mozgov	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	0.00	0.07	8	88%	0.00	4	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	5	42%	-0.02	4	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	12	62%	0.05	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	13	67%	0.10	4	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.05	3	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	12	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	55%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	0.04	3	50%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	12	46%	-0.05	4	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	28.8	14.6	23.4	2.4	27.3	121.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +23.3%

DEN +1.6%

DEN +10.9%

DEN +11.6%

DEN +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	14.2	14.0	15.6	128.4	100.0	102.8
season	14.5	15.3		107.5	102.6
opponent	15.1	15.8		104.7	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	13.1	16.1	13.2	14.2
MIN	14.7	15.6	15.2	11.2	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	50	53	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.29	28	1	27	13.9	14.5	-0.58	15.9	12.0	3.96
Kosta Koufos	56	55	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.28	23	6	17	14.6	13.8	0.79	14.3	13.7	0.66
Corey Brewer	62	62	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.18	19	10	9	13.9	14.7	-0.83	13.3	15.2	-1.87
JaVale McGee	37	38	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.24	17	12	5	14.6	14.0	0.58	14.4	13.8	0.57
Andre Miller	44	43	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.04	10	19	-9	15.2	13.5	1.69	13.5	14.5	-0.99
Danilo Gallinari	51	53	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.25	17	12	5	15.2	13.2	1.96	15.6	12.3	3.26
Arron Afflalo	59	59	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.17	13	16	-3	14.7	13.6	1.10	15.1	12.6	2.44
Kenneth Faried	68	67	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.15	11	18	-7	14.2	14.1	0.07	13.9	14.2	-0.29
Timofey Mozgov	32	31	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	29	-29	12.2	15.1	-2.97	12.1	14.9	-2.84
Jordan Hamilton	30	29	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	24	-19	13.2	14.6	-1.41	11.2	15.2	-4.01
Julyan Stone	21	20	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	27	-25	13.0	14.5	-1.51	11.3	14.7	-3.35

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Randolph	43	43	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.23	-10	-19	9	14.2	13.9	0.33	14.8	13.7	1.07
Wayne Ellington	51	52	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.14	-7	-22	15	12.2	15.9	-3.76	14.1	14.3	-0.24
Wesley Johnson	37	37	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.11	-8	-21	13	15.4	13.3	2.06	14.8	13.9	0.88
Brad Miller	40	40	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-28	27	12.0	15.4	-3.35	14.3	14.1	0.25
Derrick Williams	37	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-24	19	12.1	15.2	-3.12	13.0	14.9	-1.91
Malcolm Lee	48	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.18	-14	-15	1	12.8	15.2	-2.40	12.7	15.5	-2.81
Anthony Tolliver	34	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.31	-20	-9	-11	15.4	13.4	1.97	13.8	14.4	-0.60
Jose Juan Barea	61	61	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.15	-16	-13	-3	15.2	12.3	2.96	14.9	13.2	1.63
Nikola Pekovic	50	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.28	-22	-7	-15	16.1	12.1	4.00	14.7	13.7	1.04
Michael Beasley	54	54	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.25	-21	-8	-13	12.9	15.3	-2.44	13.5	15.0	-1.48
Martell Webster	55	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.22	-21	-8	-13	15.8	12.0	3.86	15.2	13.1	2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 108, DEN 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
UTA 108, NYK 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.54,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
LAL 103, NOH 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%