NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	77		Excitement	7.5 [263]		MVP	Marcus Morris (HOU): +17.5%
Houston Rockets	84		Comeback	6.5 [306]		LVP	Greivis Vasquez (NOH): -29.8%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Landry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lance Thomas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	55%	0.04	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	13	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.05
Darryl Watkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	6	52%	0.10	4	-0.16	13	54%	-0.03
Jerome Dyson	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	14	44%	-0.07	4	-0.10	6	50%	-0.02
Greivis Vasquez	-0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.27,-0.3	-0.16	-0.17	-0.03	14	29%	-0.16	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.18,0.18	0.18	-0.03	0.19	-0.02	10	35%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	6	67%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.04	0.01	18	69%	0.28	3	-0.20	3	67%	-0.01
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	61%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Courtney Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	40%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	10	36%	-0.01	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	7	0%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	14	36%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25	-0.25	-0.11	-0.15	-0.00	16	27%	-0.17	1	-0.08	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	31.9	15.0	25.8	1.5	29.3	129.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +22.4%

NOH -4.6%

HOU +34.1%

NOH -1.6%

NOH -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	HOU	NBA	NOH	HOU	NBA
this game	16.5	14.9	15.6	84.6	90.3	102.8
season	16.3	15.4		99.2	103.5
opponent	15.5	15.7		103.2	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	16.8	16.6	16.0	16.4	16.5
HOU	15.3	16.1	14.0	14.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	32	35	0.45	-0.95	1.39	-0.02	16	-23	39	13.0	18.3	-5.29	15.6	14.4	1.23
Carl Landry	13	12	0.27	-0.77	1.05	-0.11	13	-20	33	16.2	16.5	-0.27	16.1	14.7	1.40
Jason Smith	10	10	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.12	9	-16	25	14.2	16.7	-2.54	15.2	14.8	0.38
Lance Thomas	87	89	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.27	-11	4	-15	16.4	18.5	-2.13	15.0	10.7	4.29
Greivis Vasquez	74	75	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.19	-14	7	-21	17.2	13.2	3.97	14.3	17.0	-2.65
Darryl Watkins	79	80	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.20	-15	8	-23	16.9	13.5	3.41	14.8	15.2	-0.34
Al-Farouq Aminu	81	84	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.30	-14	7	-21	16.6	15.1	1.53	15.1	13.0	2.06
Jerome Dyson	79	80	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.27	-19	12	-31	17.0	13.2	3.80	14.4	17.6	-3.20

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Smith	41	38	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.38	7	0	7	13.6	15.8	-2.24	16.3	16.5	-0.21
Chase Budinger	82	79	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.14	14	-7	21	14.7	16.0	-1.29	17.0	13.2	3.80
Goran Dragic	68	65	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.28	8	-1	9	15.3	13.6	1.78	16.3	16.8	-0.48
Patrick Patterson	63	60	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	1	5	13.9	16.8	-2.91	16.2	16.9	-0.72
Marcus Morris	42	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.48	-3	10	-13	14.3	15.4	-1.09	15.9	17.0	-1.11
Samuel Dalembert	32	33	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	3	1	16.8	13.8	2.98	17.1	16.1	1.04
Courtney Lee	62	62	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	4	-1	15.5	13.6	1.82	16.2	17.0	-0.74
Courtney Fortson	25	26	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	8	-9	13.6	15.3	-1.78	16.8	16.3	0.48
Luis Scola	50	51	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.05	-3	10	-13	15.8	13.7	2.08	16.4	16.5	-0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.18,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.32,0.47,0.33,0.4,0.31,0.55,0.57,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 86, TOR 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.26,0.17,0.2,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.78,0.92,1	91.1%
MIA 77, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.78,0.8,0.99,1	90.9%
DAL 104, ATL 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.39,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.41,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.3,0.14,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.53,0.38,0.57,0.68,0.91,1	90.9%