NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	86		Excitement	7.7 [308]		MVP	Jonas Valanciunas (TOR): +14.3%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	17.8 [155]		LVP	Pero Antic (ATL): -19.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Elton Brand	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	87%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dennis Schroder	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	6	46%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	7	47%	0.07	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.06	-0.03	0.01	13	55%	0.02	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.06
Mike Scott	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	9	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Teague	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.08	0.01	13	52%	-0.02	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Paul Millsap	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	16	50%	0.01	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Pero Antic	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	6	29%	-0.04	4	-0.16	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.02	4	72%	0.19	2	-0.04	10	90%	0.06
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.08	0.06	17	61%	0.16	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.03
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	18	52%	0.15	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Steve Novak	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Landry Fields	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Nando De Colo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	2	75%	0.01	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	7	43%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	13	43%	-0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	14	34%	-0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.6	26.5	15.5	28.2	1.5	33.5	132.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +1.9%

TOR +8.4%

TOR +37.0%

TOR +2.7%

ATL -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.3	16.3	15.1	91.5	102.1	105.2
season	14.8	15.9		103.8	107.2
opponent	15.1	15.3		104.2	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.7	14.2	14.4	14.0	14.3
TOR	16.6	15.8	18.4	14.8	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	40	41	0.26	-0.76	1.03	0.18	3	-13	16	15.1	13.7	1.36	17.0	15.8	1.16
Mike Scott	33	33	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.06	5	-15	20	14.8	14.0	0.82	17.8	15.5	2.22
Louis Williams	36	35	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.06	3	-13	16	15.2	13.8	1.42	17.9	15.4	2.54
Dennis Schroder	25	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.17	-8	-2	-6	16.0	13.7	2.29	15.1	16.7	-1.66
Jeff Teague	69	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.38	-2	-8	6	13.7	16.0	-2.29	16.7	15.1	1.66
DeMarre Carroll	72	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	-3	-4	14.1	15.1	-1.01	16.6	15.3	1.31
Shelvin Mack	58	59	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.27	-13	3	-16	13.8	15.2	-1.42	15.4	17.9	-2.54
Paul Millsap	82	82	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.25	-16	6	-22	14.4	13.5	0.94	15.6	21.0	-5.37
Pero Antic	55	54	-0.79	0.29	-1.08	-0.35	-15	5	-20	13.6	15.4	-1.82	15.6	17.3	-1.75

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Valanciunas	69	69	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.35	14	-4	18	15.4	18.9	-3.49	13.8	15.8	-2.02
Terrence Ross	67	69	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.33	12	-2	14	15.9	17.4	-1.58	14.1	14.8	-0.66
Kyle Lowry	57	56	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.31	11	-1	12	14.2	19.5	-5.31	13.9	14.9	-0.92
DeMar DeRozan	74	73	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	4	2	16.9	14.3	2.50	13.8	16.2	-2.47
Charles Hayes	25	24	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.14	16	-6	22	13.6	17.3	-3.76	14.3	14.3	0.02
Amir Johnson	57	58	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	13	-16	17.1	15.1	2.04	14.3	14.4	-0.11
Landry Fields	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	10	-10	10.0	16.4	-6.39	3.0	14.4	-11.44
Steve Novak	17	17	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.07	1	9	-8	15.7	16.5	-0.75	15.9	14.0	1.91
Nando De Colo	19	20	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.10	2	8	-6	18.4	15.8	2.57	15.8	13.9	1.94
John Salmons	11	12	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	12	-14	16.7	16.3	0.46	17.3	13.9	3.46
Greivis Vasquez	53	51	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.17	1	9	-8	17.7	14.5	3.16	14.7	13.9	0.76
Tyler Hansbrough	20	20	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.05	-8	18	-26	21.2	15.0	6.20	14.9	14.1	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.26,0.17,0.2,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.37,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.78,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 76, MIL 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.31,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.12,0.33,0.45,0.54,0.76,0.91,1	92.8%
PHI 91, BOS 92	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.32,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.34,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.84,0.91,1	91.8%
ORL 103, NYK 108	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.26,0.24,0.17,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.45,0.55,0.84,0.95,1	91.4%