NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	8.3 [166]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +19.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	101		Comeback	2.9 [376]		LVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): -10.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.10	0.02	15	66%	0.26	2	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.08	0.02	9	52%	0.09	1	-0.01	7	14%	-0.12
JaVale McGee	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	9	53%	0.07	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Corey Brewer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.08	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	7	31%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Arron Afflalo	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	15	45%	-0.01	2	-0.08	3	67%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	13	42%	-0.05	1	-0.06	7	86%	0.04

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.01	9	75%	0.20	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	-0.02	-0.01	23	65%	0.34	5	-0.24	3	100%	0.02
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	7	64%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lazar Hayward	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.08,-0.06	-0.06	0.10	-0.14	0.02	20	60%	0.05	2	-0.11	10	90%	0.06
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	27.3	15.4	26.8	2.0	34.0	132.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC -14.6%

OKC -1.0%

DEN +30.4%

DEN +29.3%

DEN +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.8	15.4	15.6	114.0	109.8	102.8
season	14.5	14.7		107.5	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.8		101.9	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.4	15.8	17.4	15.6	15.8
OKC	15.6	18.5	13.9	13.8	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Brewer	47	47	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.31	12	-7	19	14.6	17.0	-2.34	15.0	15.8	-0.78
Ty Lawson	69	69	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.39	3	2	1	16.0	15.2	0.76	15.0	16.5	-1.49
Danilo Gallinari	65	63	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.43	1	4	-3	15.8	15.6	0.24	15.6	14.9	0.62
Arron Afflalo	79	79	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	-1	7	15.5	17.4	-1.95	15.2	16.5	-1.37
Kenneth Faried	52	51	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.26	0	5	-5	16.1	15.3	0.82	15.9	14.7	1.13
JaVale McGee	34	35	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.06	7	-2	9	14.8	16.3	-1.54	15.8	15.1	0.76
Al Harrington	45	44	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	6	-7	16.0	15.5	0.48	15.5	15.2	0.27
Andre Miller	40	39	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.10	1	4	-3	16.5	15.2	1.36	15.8	15.0	0.76
Kosta Koufos	34	33	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.04	-4	9	-13	16.7	15.2	1.47	14.8	15.7	-0.89

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	41	39	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.01	5	-10	15	15.4	15.4	0.01	16.2	15.5	0.65
Nazr Mohammed	14	14	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-7	9	17.2	15.0	2.19	15.9	15.8	0.10
Lazar Hayward	8	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-3	1	18.5	15.1	3.44	18.4	15.6	2.87
Royal Ivey	10	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-2	-1	16.1	15.3	0.83	15.7	15.8	-0.12
Kendrick Perkins	35	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.02	-2	-3	1	16.3	14.8	1.45	16.2	15.5	0.64
Thabo Sefolosha	57	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-1	-3	14.3	17.1	-2.88	16.2	15.1	1.15
Kevin Durant	77	79	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.35	1	-6	7	15.0	17.2	-2.20	15.4	18.0	-2.62
Russell Westbrook	67	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-5	5	14.9	16.5	-1.59	16.1	15.0	1.13
Daequan Cook	43	43	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	5	-15	16.3	14.5	1.86	14.7	16.7	-2.09
Serge Ibaka	57	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	-1	-3	15.0	15.9	-0.94	15.9	15.6	0.31
Derek Fisher	51	52	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.39	-8	3	-11	15.5	15.2	0.30	15.4	16.3	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.52,0.37,0.3,0.2,0.4,0.4,0.28,0.41,0.1,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 83, CLE 74	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.33,0.09,0	92.5%
CLE 85, DET 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.38,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.15,0	92.4%
POR 80, CHA 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.27,0	91.6%