NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	9.0 [110]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +33.1%
Houston Rockets	102		Comeback	3.0 [167]		LVP	Patrick Patterson (HOU): -27.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.33	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.21,0.13,0.33	0.10	0.25	0.02	15	66%	0.38	2	-0.05	8	62%	0.02
Corey Brewer	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.09	0.18	-0.00	5	85%	0.30	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16	0.17	0.02	0.02	16	68%	0.16	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Al Harrington	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	11	58%	0.23	2	-0.13	4	100%	0.04
JaVale McGee	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	5	64%	0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.08
Kenneth Faried	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	-0.07	0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	9	50%	0.01	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Kosta Koufos	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.04	-0.01	8	25%	-0.04	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.27,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.15	0.02	16	60%	0.26	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.04
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	9	50%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Courtney Lee	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.03	-0.01	15	60%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Goran Dragic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.01	19	51%	0.06	2	-0.10	3	100%	0.03
Luis Scola	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	15	44%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.04
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25,-0.33,-0.33,-0.28	-0.28	-0.08	-0.20	-0.00	10	41%	-0.10	3	-0.18	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.3	27.4	15.4	25.4	2.4	39.3	135.4
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +64.1%

HOU -7.1%

HOU -10.6%

DEN +4.4%

HOU -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	13.9	15.8	15.6	108.2	105.2	102.8
season	14.5	15.4		107.5	103.5
opponent	15.5	15.8		103.2	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	13.2	13.5	13.3	13.9
HOU	13.7	15.6	19.2	15.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	68	68	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.49	12	-9	21	14.4	12.8	1.55	16.1	15.0	1.05
Arron Afflalo	85	85	0.80	-0.29	1.09	0.47	11	-8	19	13.9	14.2	-0.38	15.8	15.4	0.41
Al Harrington	57	57	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.20	7	-4	11	13.0	15.2	-2.18	15.9	15.6	0.25
Andre Miller	54	53	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.30	2	1	1	13.2	14.8	-1.65	15.8	15.7	0.17
Corey Brewer	38	39	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.08	8	-5	13	12.3	14.9	-2.63	15.7	15.8	-0.14
Ty Lawson	72	73	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.48	-12	15	-27	14.5	12.2	2.26	14.8	18.7	-3.84
Kenneth Faried	41	41	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	3	-3	15.5	12.8	2.68	16.9	14.9	1.96
JaVale McGee	37	35	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	6	-9	12.7	14.7	-2.01	15.4	16.0	-0.54
Kosta Koufos	25	26	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	6	-9	15.9	13.2	2.70	16.6	15.5	1.10
Timofey Mozgov	8	8	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.02	-7	10	-17	15.7	13.8	2.00	13.5	16.0	-2.48

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samuel Dalembert	46	46	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.07	5	-8	13	16.5	15.2	1.30	15.3	12.7	2.55
Chandler Parsons	69	69	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.49	11	-14	25	14.9	17.8	-2.88	14.4	12.6	1.84
Kyle Lowry	45	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.13	-10	7	-17	15.3	16.2	-0.94	11.5	15.9	-4.41
Chase Budinger	33	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.05	-13	10	-23	16.7	15.3	1.40	12.7	14.5	-1.85
Courtney Lee	71	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.42	0	-3	3	16.0	15.2	0.85	14.4	12.5	1.88
Luis Scola	87	87	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.40	-1	-2	1	15.3	19.8	-4.49	14.0	13.3	0.69
Goran Dragic	74	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.50	2	-5	7	16.1	14.9	1.18	14.7	11.1	3.60
Patrick Patterson	60	60	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.36	-9	6	-15	16.1	15.2	0.94	13.0	15.4	-2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.67,0.56,0.64,0.52,0.56,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.63,0.72,0.61,0.55,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.53,0.73,0.64,0.6,0.34,0.38,0.54,0.32,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 96, TOR 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.56,0.66,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.23,0.04,0	91.6%
BOS 92, MIN 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.47,0.36,0.24,0.16,0	91.5%
MIN 96, POR 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.62,0.68,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.16,0	90.9%