NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	7.1 [327]		MVP	Matt Barnes (LAL): +44.6%
Los Angeles Lakers	103		Comeback	1.2 [734]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -22.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.17,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	0.01	14	60%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
JaVale McGee	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	9	78%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	15	51%	0.06	2	-0.05	5	80%	-0.04
Timofey Mozgov	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	9	35%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	14	32%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	4	0%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.05	-0.16	0.02	18	50%	-0.10	4	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.42,0.45,0.45	0.45	0.21	0.23	-0.01	11	96%	0.47	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Andrew Bynum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	19	61%	0.16	4	-0.11	11	73%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Ebanks	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.07	-0.01	12	52%	-0.02	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	13	47%	0.01	6	-0.15	4	50%	-0.03
Ramon Sessions	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.06	0.03	7	35%	-0.11	3	-0.08	6	83%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.5	29.8	16.7	28.5	1.8	37.0	140.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +37.4%

LAL +17.1%

LAL +14.7%

DEN -17.9%

DEN -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	14.1	15.9	15.6	101.0	107.3	102.8
season	14.5	16.2		107.5	103.8
opponent	15.1	15.8		103.5	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.9	14.8	14.0	12.9	14.1
LAL	14.0	18.8	14.3	17.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	54	53	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.33	8	-14	22	14.4	13.8	0.60	16.8	14.7	2.09
Kosta Koufos	16	18	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	1	-8	15.4	13.9	1.57	12.6	16.6	-4.02
Corey Brewer	37	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-8	10	14.4	14.0	0.41	16.3	15.6	0.73
Andre Miller	63	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.37	5	-11	16	14.1	14.2	-0.18	16.9	14.1	2.81
Timofey Mozgov	24	24	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	1	-8	13.5	14.3	-0.83	16.5	15.7	0.83
Arron Afflalo	79	80	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.31	1	-7	8	14.0	14.5	-0.49	15.3	18.6	-3.30
Al Harrington	55	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-8	10	13.6	14.9	-1.31	16.0	15.7	0.24
Kenneth Faried	36	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.04	-12	6	-18	15.4	13.4	1.98	15.3	16.2	-0.88
Ty Lawson	61	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.12	-8	2	-10	13.6	15.0	-1.33	15.5	16.5	-1.01
Danilo Gallinari	55	54	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.01	-14	8	-22	14.1	14.2	-0.12	15.8	16.0	-0.14

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	77	75	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.28	12	-6	18	15.8	16.3	-0.55	14.6	12.5	2.05
Ramon Sessions	62	63	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	-4	14	15.5	16.6	-1.20	13.9	14.5	-0.64
Metta World Peace	79	80	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.35	3	3	0	15.7	16.7	-1.01	14.4	12.5	1.95
Andrew Bynum	77	76	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.23	7	-1	8	15.4	17.7	-2.32	13.8	15.3	-1.55
Devin Ebanks	50	48	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	-7	20	14.0	17.9	-3.87	14.2	14.0	0.25
Steve Blake	41	41	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	6	-6	17.5	14.6	2.90	13.9	14.3	-0.47
Troy Murphy	13	15	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	2	2	17.6	15.6	2.01	13.4	14.3	-0.86
Matt Barnes	57	58	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.34	-8	14	-22	16.9	14.4	2.55	13.7	14.8	-1.19
Josh McRoberts	24	24	-0.17	0.68	-0.85	0.15	-11	17	-28	17.0	15.5	1.50	15.0	13.8	1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.74,0.71,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.8,0.76,0.67,0.81,0.54,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 84, POR 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.87,0.78,0.82,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.83,1	92.5%
SAC 115, WAS 121	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.68,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.66,0.59,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.62,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.81,0.86,0.8,0.8,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.46,0.55,0.96,1	92.1%
IND 86, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.76,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.73,0.76,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.98,1,1	91.7%