NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	104		Excitement	7.2 [313]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +27.5%
Orlando Magic	101		Comeback	1.6 [369]		LVP	Jason Richardson (ORL): -17.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.28	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.28	0.16	0.13	0.02	16	71%	0.30	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.07	0.15	-0.01	14	58%	0.26	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.08	-0.01	14	71%	0.27	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12	0.03	0.07	-0.02	7	68%	0.18	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.05
Kosta Koufos	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.03	-0.01	9	40%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kenneth Faried	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	2	100%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	-0.16	0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.05	-0.02	3	25%	-0.03	5	-0.13	2	0%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.09	0.01	8	71%	0.21	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	0.01	18	51%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	21	59%	0.16	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	10	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	14	46%	0.02	1	-0.03	11	55%	-0.06
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	-0.00	12	25%	-0.13	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.4	26.5	16.4	29.2	1.0	37.0	136.2
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +71.2%

ORL -4.6%

ORL -13.4%

ORL -6.0%

DEN +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.0	16.4	15.6	115.6	108.6	102.8
season	14.5	16.2		107.5	102.8
opponent	15.8	15.8		103.0	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	15.9	12.7	17.5	15.0
ORL	18.4	16.8	15.5	15.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	76	80	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.30	12	-9	21	14.9	16.0	-1.14	16.4	16.8	-0.41
Kosta Koufos	44	46	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.01	19	-16	35	15.0	15.1	-0.07	17.2	15.6	1.58
Andre Miller	50	52	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.44	2	1	1	16.5	13.2	3.30	16.4	16.4	0.01
Al Harrington	58	59	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	1	1	16.5	12.4	4.08	16.2	16.8	-0.64
Kenneth Faried	52	54	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	2	-1	14.3	16.1	-1.76	16.0	17.0	-0.96
Ty Lawson	71	74	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.35	-4	7	-11	14.5	17.0	-2.49	16.2	17.3	-1.13
Corey Brewer	64	64	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.18	0	3	-3	14.2	17.0	-2.82	16.4	16.5	-0.14
Jordan Hamilton	12	12	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	1	1	17.2	14.7	2.46	18.2	16.1	2.10
JaVale McGee	23	24	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	0.10	-19	22	-41	13.3	15.6	-2.32	16.5	16.4	0.05

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	66	63	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.16	5	-8	13	16.3	16.8	-0.56	13.4	18.8	-5.40
Ryan Anderson	76	74	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.38	8	-11	19	16.4	16.5	-0.06	15.0	15.1	-0.04
Chris Duhon	22	23	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.10	-5	2	-7	18.0	15.9	2.01	17.3	14.3	2.99
Jameer Nelson	71	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.31	2	-5	7	15.9	18.0	-2.01	14.3	17.3	-2.99
Glen Davis	74	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.29	-2	-1	-1	15.9	18.3	-2.32	14.5	17.3	-2.81
Earl Clark	34	32	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.08	-13	10	-23	18.2	15.4	2.77	16.9	14.0	2.95
Hedo Turkoglu	73	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	2	-7	15.9	18.3	-2.46	14.9	15.5	-0.66
JJ Redick	49	49	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	2	-7	16.9	15.8	1.10	16.9	12.8	4.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.48,0.32,0.45,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.22,0.2,0.08,0.04,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 95, WAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.17,0.14,0.04,0.01,0.01,0	94.1%
SAS 111, ATL 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.19,0.34,0.2,0.15,0.15,0,0	92.5%
LAC 98, MEM 91	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.42,0.55,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.04,0.01,0	92.4%