NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	94		Excitement	5.8 [518]		MVP	John Lucas III (CHI): +14.0%
Toronto Raptors	82		Comeback	6.3 [305]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -15.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Lucas III	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.10	0.00	11	54%	0.14	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.09	0.01	8	59%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	4	57%	0.06	2	-0.03	6	67%	-0.03
Ronnie Brewer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	11	55%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Joakim Noah	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	9	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.05
CJ Watson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.03	0.02	11	62%	0.07	4	-0.11	2	100%	-0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	9	44%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.16	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.05	-0.08	0.03	16	45%	-0.04	4	-0.12	6	100%	0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	4	56%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	14	57%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	25	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	10	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	0.01	10	41%	-0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	9	26%	-0.07	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.7	25.1	15.5	25.7	1.8	32.5	125.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +42.1%

TOR -5.4%

CHI +16.8%

TOR -4.5%

CHI +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	TOR	NBA	CHI	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	16.6	15.6	103.3	91.1	102.8
season	16.0	16.5		104.7	98.9
opponent	15.2	15.9		102.9	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.5	15.1	16.7	13.9	15.3
TOR	16.5	16.2	16.8	16.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	83	81	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.09	21	-9	30	15.1	16.5	-1.36	16.8	14.9	1.86
Taj Gibson	41	40	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.17	18	-6	24	14.2	16.1	-1.90	15.6	17.3	-1.65
John Lucas III	32	32	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.25	15	-3	18	15.0	15.4	-0.41	17.0	16.3	0.62
Omer Asik	34	34	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	0	12	15.9	14.9	0.99	16.9	16.4	0.46
Kyle Korver	38	39	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.36	5	7	-2	15.9	14.8	1.08	17.1	16.2	0.95
Joakim Noah	52	51	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	15	-18	15.7	14.6	1.09	17.2	15.7	1.45
CJ Watson	64	63	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.19	0	12	-12	14.7	16.6	-1.94	15.7	18.6	-2.89
Carlos Boozer	50	50	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.02	-6	18	-24	16.1	14.2	1.90	17.3	15.6	1.65
Ronnie Brewer	61	60	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.16	-2	14	-16	15.0	15.7	-0.70	16.0	17.8	-1.80

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	62	61	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.12	-3	-9	6	15.5	18.9	-3.38	15.5	14.8	0.74
Amir Johnson	46	48	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.11	-4	-8	4	17.2	15.9	1.29	15.4	15.1	0.24
Gary Forbes	35	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-15	18	16.8	16.4	0.34	15.6	15.1	0.50
Jerryd Bayless	3	3	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-9	6	14.7	16.6	-1.97	12.0	15.4	-3.38
Andrea Bargnani	64	65	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-10	8	16.1	17.6	-1.47	15.0	15.8	-0.76
DeMar DeRozan	70	70	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.01	-7	-5	-2	16.1	18.3	-2.29	15.2	15.6	-0.40
Aaron Gray	31	30	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	-9	6	17.3	16.2	1.15	16.4	14.7	1.70
Ed Davis	26	26	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	-2	-8	17.6	16.1	1.47	15.8	15.0	0.76
Jose Calderon	74	77	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.18	-13	1	-14	17.0	14.6	2.36	15.1	16.1	-0.95
Linas Kleiza	39	40	-0.79	0.29	-1.07	-0.26	-18	6	-24	17.0	16.3	0.72	14.3	16.0	-1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.67,0.6,0.73,0.72,0.82,0.85,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.68,0.47,0.24,0.09,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 106, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.67,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.62,0.42,0.31,0.12,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	91.6%
CLE 121, ATL 108	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.75,0.72,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.75,0.73,0.8,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.85,0.66,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.4,0.22,0.11,0.04,0.03,0,0	91.4%
WAS 90, MIN 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.7,0.62,0.63,0.41,0.29,0.22,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0	91.1%