NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	117		Excitement	12.1 [10]		MVP	Kirk Hinrich (ATL): +67.0%
Denver Nuggets	118		Comeback	20.8 [58]		LVP	Jannero Pargo (ATL): -24.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0.67	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.46,0.59,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.67	0.20	0.47	0.00	8	100%	0.71	1	-0.04	6	83%	-0.14
Josh Smith	0.62	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.23,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.62	0.18	0.43	-0.01	23	65%	0.64	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Erick Dampier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	10	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.1,0.24,-0.04	0.09	-0.12	0.01	26	63%	0.17	5	-0.21	2	100%	0.02
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	4	0%	-0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	8	45%	-0.05	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Zaza Pachulia	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.16	-0.04	-0.13	-0.00	8	37%	-0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.04	-0.20	0.00	5	30%	-0.13	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64	0.64	0.07	0.58	0.00	13	58%	0.68	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.13	-0.01	12	68%	0.35	2	-0.12	4	75%	0.02
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.18	0.18	0.03	0.14	-0.01	16	58%	0.26	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.12
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.05	0.01	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.05	0.05	0.15	-0.09	0.01	11	87%	0.19	2	-0.14	2	50%	-0.04
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.05	0.10	0.00	10	35%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	71%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.3	1.8	26.0	15.8	25.9	1.8	36.2	1.7	23.7	158.0
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +52.7%

DEN +2.3%

ATL -14.3%

DEN +11.1%

ATL -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	17.0	14.1	15.6	114.7	115.7	102.8
season	15.7	14.5		102.5	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.9		104.5	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ATL	14.0	18.5	16.1	17.4	23.2	17.0
DEN	13.2	13.6	17.4	15.3	7.6	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	45	46	0.52	-1.02	1.54	0.37	5	-6	11	15.6	18.2	-2.65	14.9	13.5	1.33
Josh Smith	69	69	0.42	-0.92	1.34	0.24	6	-7	13	17.4	16.3	1.13	14.6	13.1	1.50
Jeff Teague	80	80	0.23	-0.73	0.97	0.03	7	-8	15	16.5	19.1	-2.62	14.9	11.3	3.65
Erick Dampier	8	7	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	5	-11	15.0	17.2	-2.21	11.7	14.3	-2.60
Kirk Hinrich	78	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.45	1	-2	3	17.3	16.1	1.25	14.1	14.2	-0.14
Joe Johnson	79	78	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.63	4	-5	9	17.5	15.4	2.07	14.1	14.2	-0.15
Zaza Pachulia	87	89	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.57	1	-2	3	17.3	15.7	1.53	14.3	13.2	1.04
Jannero Pargo	32	34	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.28	-11	10	-21	16.0	17.5	-1.56	14.8	13.8	0.94
Vladimir Radmanovic	22	21	-0.97	0.47	-1.44	-0.65	-11	10	-21	16.9	17.1	-0.22	10.2	15.1	-4.91

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	58	60	0.88	-0.38	1.27	0.44	15	-14	29	12.7	16.1	-3.44	17.3	16.6	0.71
Danilo Gallinari	71	72	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.65	4	-3	7	13.7	15.2	-1.52	17.2	16.7	0.53
Ty Lawson	68	70	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.71	0	1	-1	13.9	14.7	-0.81	17.0	17.2	-0.26
Nene	72	73	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.52	-3	4	-7	13.9	14.8	-0.89	18.1	14.4	3.62
Rudy Fernandez	30	29	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	-1	3	15.2	13.7	1.51	16.8	17.1	-0.30
Timofey Mozgov	19	18	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.03	0	1	-1	14.3	14.1	0.15	12.9	17.9	-4.97
Arron Afflalo	58	58	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.02	-4	5	-9	14.7	13.4	1.24	16.2	18.1	-1.93
Corey Brewer	36	34	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.25	3	-2	5	14.5	13.9	0.60	16.6	17.2	-0.59
Andre Miller	39	38	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.21	-3	4	-7	15.7	13.1	2.60	17.5	16.8	0.73
Kenneth Faried	50	48	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.05	-10	11	-21	15.6	12.7	2.87	16.3	17.7	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.76,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.38,0.43,0.29,0.42,0.7,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.15,0.14,0.58,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.16,0.15,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 111, BKN 113	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.73,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.32,0.36,0.32,0.42,0.54,0.62,0.36,0.17,0.42,1	87.6%
SAS 98, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.71,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.44,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.34,0.4,0.31,0.21,0.23,0.73,0.46,0.55,0.36,0.45,0.43,1	87.1%
NOP 93, SAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.81,0.71,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.42,0.46,0.19,0.22,0.16,0.42,1	86.4%