NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	10.8 [39]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +39.9%
Orlando Magic	104		Comeback	6.3 [96]		LVP	Shane Battier (MIA): -26.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.29	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29	0.11	0.20	0.02	22	61%	0.30	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
James Jones	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.02	0.02	14	68%	0.11	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	5	40%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	6	17%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21	-0.06	-0.17	-0.02	13	38%	-0.05	2	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.2,-0.26	-0.11	-0.21	-0.06	20	44%	-0.11	6	-0.16	3	100%	0.01
Shane Battier	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,-0.15,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.06	-0.20	0.00	5	20%	-0.24	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.39,0.4	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.01	16	74%	0.50	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.11	0.00	4	69%	0.18	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.23,0.12,0.12,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.06	0.02	13	55%	0.14	2	-0.06	18	33%	-0.16
Ryan Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	11	64%	0.13	4	-0.12	3	67%	-0.04
Justin Harper	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeAndre Liggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.06	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	0.03	-0.25	0.03	10	63%	0.02	3	-0.28	7	86%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.5	2.0	30.1	17.4	27.3	2.8	34.0	1.8	21.8	163.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +73.4%

ORL +11.0%

ORL +9.4%

MIA -39.6%

MIA -4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.3	16.5	15.6	98.0	104.0	102.8
season	15.5	16.2		105.6	102.8
opponent	15.8	15.8		103.0	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	14.3	14.5	17.2	16.4	13.5	15.3
ORL	15.0	19.1	17.1	17.0	12.5	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	29	27	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.16	10	-16	26	15.1	15.4	-0.34	19.4	15.4	4.05
Joel Anthony	33	34	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.03	3	-9	12	14.8	15.5	-0.69	16.1	16.7	-0.52
Norris Cole	31	33	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.07	6	-12	18	14.1	15.9	-1.76	19.9	14.8	5.15
Dexter Pittman	9	9	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-2	-2	15.8	15.3	0.51	18.8	16.3	2.51
Dwyane Wade	75	74	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.24	2	-8	10	14.9	16.4	-1.51	15.7	18.7	-2.98
LeBron James	82	82	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-6	6	15.1	16.3	-1.18	15.7	20.1	-4.42
Udonis Haslem	41	39	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.14	-21	15	-36	16.3	14.6	1.67	16.9	16.2	0.63
Chris Bosh	85	85	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.33	-6	0	-6	15.3	15.1	0.21	16.4	16.9	-0.52
Shane Battier	54	54	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.34	-10	4	-14	15.9	14.7	1.22	16.3	16.7	-0.42
Mario Chalmers	61	63	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.41	-10	4	-14	15.8	14.6	1.18	15.3	18.6	-3.34

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	78	83	1.05	-0.55	1.59	0.28	26	-20	46	16.3	17.3	-1.00	16.1	11.6	4.41
Hedo Turkoglu	73	73	0.68	-0.17	0.85	0.24	15	-9	24	16.1	17.4	-1.31	15.3	15.3	0.07
Dwight Howard	90	89	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	1	4	16.0	20.6	-4.57	15.2	16.5	-1.29
Glen Davis	32	32	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	-3	12	18.3	15.6	2.73	15.7	15.1	0.65
Chris Duhon	27	26	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.07	9	-3	12	18.5	15.7	2.78	15.8	15.1	0.72
Jameer Nelson	73	74	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.26	-3	9	-12	15.7	18.5	-2.78	15.1	15.8	-0.72
Ryan Anderson	76	75	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	7	-8	16.6	16.2	0.43	15.4	15.0	0.41
Justin Harper	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	7	-8	5.0	16.6	-11.61	0.0	15.5	-15.46
DeAndre Liggins	11	12	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.08	-14	20	-34	18.6	16.2	2.41	12.4	15.7	-3.29
Quentin Richardson	39	35	-0.39	0.89	-1.29	0.05	-15	21	-36	16.6	16.4	0.21	14.7	15.7	-1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.46,0.57,0.59,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.47,0.36,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 99, ATL 103	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.59,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.25,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.32,0.47,0.55,0.72,0.55,0.45,0.22,0.27,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.89,0.85,1	88.4%
ATL 86, BOS 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.7,0.73,0.59,0.4,0.53,0.75,0.55,0.45,0.73,0.54,0.61,0.77,0.67,0.85,1	88.1%
SAS 74, TOR 80	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.62,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.46,0.69,0.79,0.84,0.99,1	87.9%