NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	106		Excitement	9.2 [93]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +69.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	104		Comeback	1.6 [640]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -23.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.37	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.08,0.37	-0.01	0.40	0.02	22	52%	0.57	4	-0.20	14	100%	0.19
Joakim Noah	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.11	0.11	0.02	14	71%	0.23	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	4	62%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	8	62%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.01	8	75%	0.26	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	80%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Ronnie Brewer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	13	54%	0.01	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.69	0.69	0.28	0.42	0.01	18	82%	0.69	0	0.00	3	67%	0.02
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.15	0.00	5	79%	0.26	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.01	0.05	21	59%	0.12	1	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	0.00	8	40%	-0.02	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.05
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.07	0.01	11	36%	-0.07	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,0.04,-0.03,-0.11,-0.14,-0.23	-0.23	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	18	29%	-0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.4	29.4	15.5	20.6	2.7	38.3	131.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +40.9%

CHI +15.5%

CHI +22.8%

MIL -29.6%

CHI +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	16.9	14.3	15.6	114.0	114.3	102.8
season	16.0	14.6		104.7	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		103.4	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.3	17.8	18.8	15.1	16.9
MIL	14.3	14.1	15.5	13.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Boozer	54	55	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.61	7	-5	12	16.7	17.3	-0.55	14.5	14.1	0.43
Kyle Korver	35	35	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.66	4	-2	6	16.9	16.9	-0.03	14.2	14.4	-0.18
Luol Deng	88	88	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.42	7	-5	12	16.3	28.2	-11.90	14.4	11.7	2.77
Joakim Noah	75	72	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.47	3	-1	4	16.5	18.8	-2.28	14.4	14.2	0.16
Derrick Rose	77	74	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.45	0	2	-2	16.8	17.8	-1.06	14.2	15.1	-0.88
John Lucas III	16	17	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	0	2	17.8	16.8	1.06	15.1	14.2	0.88
Omer Asik	18	19	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.03	-1	3	-4	18.8	16.5	2.28	14.2	14.4	-0.16
Taj Gibson	39	36	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.17	-5	7	-12	17.3	16.7	0.55	14.1	14.5	-0.43
Ronnie Brewer	63	59	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.19	-7	9	-16	17.8	15.0	2.81	14.3	14.5	-0.20

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaun Livingston	16	17	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.03	3	-5	8	14.7	14.3	0.50	20.2	16.2	3.97
Tobias Harris	28	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.00	-3	1	-4	14.6	14.2	0.38	16.7	17.0	-0.38
Jon Leuer	4	3	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.06	-6	4	-10	13.2	14.4	-1.14	13.0	17.1	-4.07
Larry Sanders	26	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.04	-4	2	-6	14.6	14.2	0.33	17.6	16.7	0.87
Mike Dunleavy	60	63	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-3	4	14.6	13.9	0.71	17.1	16.5	0.64
Drew Gooden	70	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-6	10	14.6	13.5	1.12	16.8	17.5	-0.76
Brandon Jennings	70	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.47	4	-6	10	14.2	14.7	-0.49	17.4	15.2	2.25
Carlos Delfino	49	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	5	-12	14.3	14.3	0.01	16.2	17.8	-1.55
Ersan Ilyasova	82	84	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.48	2	-4	6	14.1	16.6	-2.46	17.0	16.1	0.91
Beno Udrih	50	50	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	2	-6	13.9	14.9	-0.93	15.7	18.4	-2.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.3,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.61,0.37,0.23,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 100, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.54,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.23,0.26,0	91.5%
WAS 101, DEN 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.53,0.38,0.21,0.1,0.08,0	91.3%
DAL 101, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.48,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.09,0.18,0	91.1%