NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	7.6 [252]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +22.5%
San Antonio Spurs	94		Comeback	1.0 [339]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -24.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.23	0.08	0.16	0.01	16	58%	0.26	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	0.12	0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.01	12	56%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	0.00	2	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	8	50%	0.09	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.07
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	71%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.06
Corey Brewer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	11	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Julyan Stone	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	14	53%	0.07	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Timofey Mozgov	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Andre Miller	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24	-0.14	-0.11	-0.01	18	29%	-0.21	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.01	16	64%	0.21	3	-0.09	7	57%	-0.02
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.00	5	68%	0.11	0	0.00	9	89%	0.04
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	-0.00	8	69%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.08	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.08	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	7	44%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
James Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.05	-0.02	7	43%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	13	50%	0.04	2	-0.11	2	0%	-0.12
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	5	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.7	34.2	17.4	29.4	3.4	36.5	149.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -3.7%

SAS -0.1%

DEN +31.2%

DEN +24.5%

SAS -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.8	14.7	15.6	106.5	97.9	102.8
season	14.5	15.3		107.5	109.1
opponent	15.2	15.8		101.5	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.4	16.2	14.4	18.2	15.8
SAS	15.6	15.1	15.0	13.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	73	78	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.41	6	-1	7	16.2	14.3	1.83	14.3	16.4	-2.07
Al Harrington	64	66	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.36	3	2	1	14.6	18.4	-3.82	14.9	14.4	0.50
Andre Miller	46	47	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.29	4	1	3	16.7	14.9	1.80	14.9	14.5	0.36
Arron Afflalo	72	74	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.35	0	5	-5	16.5	13.5	2.98	13.9	17.4	-3.44
Kenneth Faried	58	60	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	7	-9	16.7	14.2	2.50	14.0	15.9	-1.98
Chris Andersen	32	33	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	2	1	17.0	15.2	1.80	16.2	14.0	2.20
Jordan Hamilton	21	22	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.00	5	0	5	13.5	16.5	-2.98	17.4	13.9	3.44
Corey Brewer	67	68	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	3	-1	14.7	18.5	-3.77	14.9	14.3	0.55
Timofey Mozgov	31	32	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	1	3	15.8	15.8	-0.02	14.6	14.7	-0.13
Julyan Stone	1	0	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	5	-5	0.0	16.0	-15.96	0.0	14.7	-14.71

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tiago Splitter	44	48	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.29	14	-19	33	14.6	14.8	-0.17	16.7	14.8	1.99
T.J. Ford	12	13	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-5	5	14.1	14.8	-0.71	14.8	15.9	-1.18
James Anderson	12	11	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-4	3	15.3	14.6	0.71	13.1	16.1	-3.06
Kawhi Leonard	43	42	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.17	5	-10	15	15.0	14.5	0.44	16.1	15.5	0.65
Matt Bonner	51	52	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-6	7	14.5	14.9	-0.34	16.3	15.1	1.19
DeJuan Blair	8	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	0	-5	14.1	14.8	-0.64	14.6	15.9	-1.31
Manu Ginobili	46	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.31	6	-11	17	13.4	15.9	-2.53	16.7	14.9	1.81
Danny Green	32	28	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	5	-15	16.4	13.9	2.50	16.0	15.7	0.36
Gary Neal	51	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.25	-4	-1	-3	14.5	15.0	-0.47	15.3	16.3	-1.02
Tony Parker	74	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-2	-1	14.5	15.5	-1.09	15.8	15.6	0.28
Tim Duncan	51	44	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.10	-17	12	-29	14.7	14.7	-0.01	15.1	16.4	-1.32
Richard Jefferson	56	53	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.29	-11	6	-17	15.5	13.6	1.86	15.1	16.7	-1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.34,0.2,0.43,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 102, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0	93.1%
LAL 97, UTA 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0	92.8%
CHI 103, PHX 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.25,0.26,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.33,0.23,0.36,0.24,0.39,0.25,0.17,0.06,0,0	92.7%