NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	105		Excitement	6.5 [404]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +52.9%
Orlando Magic	102		Comeback	12.6 [97]		LVP	JJ Redick (ORL): -11.1%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.53	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.32,0.47,0.47,0.53	0.19	0.36	0.02	21	75%	0.64	5	-0.11	9	100%	0.08
Royal Ivey	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.08	0.00	4	75%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.01	8	65%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Russell Westbrook	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	21	56%	0.11	2	-0.05	10	70%	-0.00
Nick Collison	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.03	4	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Kendrick Perkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	5	40%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.17,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.06	0.01	20	69%	0.27	3	-0.08	8	62%	-0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.00	6	73%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.00	14	50%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.05	0.03	12	62%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	8	22%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.06	0.03	14	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.0	29.2	19.7	27.1	3.5	38.8	143.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +41.6%

OKC +14.2%

ORL -4.5%

ORL -2.7%

OKC +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	ORL	NBA	OKC	ORL	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.6	114.1	109.7	102.8
season	14.7	16.2		107.9	102.8
opponent	15.8	15.8		103.0	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	18.8	15.9	13.2	12.6	14.9
ORL	14.8	16.1	16.3	17.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Royal Ivey	34	35	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.51	8	-5	13	13.9	15.6	-1.69	16.6	15.9	0.62
James Harden	64	64	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.55	6	-3	9	14.5	16.0	-1.52	16.4	15.8	0.62
Kevin Durant	82	82	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.39	9	-6	15	14.7	17.0	-2.30	16.4	14.7	1.65
Russell Westbrook	71	70	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.31	10	-7	17	15.6	12.8	2.83	17.3	12.7	4.69
Kendrick Perkins	60	60	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.51	2	1	1	15.5	13.9	1.55	16.3	16.0	0.33
Reggie Jackson	19	20	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.02	-3	6	-9	13.9	15.2	-1.26	13.9	16.8	-2.91
Nazr Mohammed	14	15	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.03	-5	8	-13	16.9	14.6	2.34	13.5	16.7	-3.24
Nick Collison	33	34	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.09	-1	4	-5	14.1	15.4	-1.33	15.9	16.3	-0.43
Serge Ibaka	42	43	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.07	-4	7	-11	16.6	13.5	3.08	16.3	16.0	0.31
Daequan Cook	41	42	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.06	-7	10	-17	13.9	15.8	-1.88	15.2	17.0	-1.81

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Duhon	32	30	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-7	11	15.8	16.4	-0.52	14.2	15.3	-1.06
DeAndre Liggins	7	7	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-6	9	14.4	16.3	-1.90	15.6	14.9	0.68
Glen Davis	30	27	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.02	3	-6	9	16.1	16.2	-0.17	16.8	14.2	2.59
Earl Clark	23	22	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.11	-6	3	-9	16.7	16.0	0.68	13.0	15.6	-2.62
JJ Redick	42	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	2	-7	16.6	15.8	0.80	13.8	15.9	-2.15
Jason Richardson	64	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-4	5	16.0	16.7	-0.69	14.9	15.1	-0.29
Ryan Anderson	62	61	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.42	-1	-2	1	15.4	17.7	-2.34	15.4	14.1	1.28
Dwight Howard	74	75	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.47	0	-3	3	16.3	15.6	0.76	14.9	15.0	-0.07
Jameer Nelson	61	62	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.38	-7	4	-11	16.4	15.8	0.52	15.3	14.2	1.06
Hedo Turkoglu	70	70	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.43	-7	4	-11	16.7	14.6	2.09	15.2	14.1	1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.75,0.83,0.62,0.28,0.1,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 104, MEM 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.81,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.62,0.46,0.15,0.16,0	93.2%
POR 110, GSW 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.53,0.61,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.51,0.62,0.72,0.8,0.76,0.84,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.94,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.66,0.55,0.46,0.24,0.16,0	92.2%
POR 97, LAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.87,0.8,0.78,0.9,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.86,0.67,0.45,0.48,0.32,0.09,0	91.8%