NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	97		Excitement	8.0 [210]		MVP	Steve Novak (NYK): +41.1%
New York Knicks	104		Comeback	8.0 [99]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -17.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.11,0.1	0.16	-0.02	0.04	20	69%	0.19	4	-0.10	9	89%	0.03
Brendan Haywood	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	0.01	6	60%	0.08	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Jason Terry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	13	50%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.02	11	58%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	47%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Dominique Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	5	42%	-0.02	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	6	17%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	9	44%	0.01	5	-0.19	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.33,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.15	0.26	-0.00	7	100%	0.41	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.03	0.02	7	78%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	20	61%	0.30	7	-0.29	6	50%	-0.04
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	10	46%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.06	-0.01	16	47%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	0.01	0.00	5	29%	-0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.06
Landry Fields	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	12	54%	0.00	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	9	28%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	2.8	29.3	19.5	25.5	3.4	37.3	146.9
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +25.1%

NYK +2.8%

NYK +19.1%

NYK +0.9%

NYK +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	NYK	NBA	DAL	NYK	NBA
this game	15.0	16.1	15.6	103.2	114.3	102.8
season	15.5	14.9		101.6	102.3
opponent	15.7	15.5		100.2	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.7	13.3	14.4	15.9	15.0
NYK	17.6	16.7	13.8	16.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	55	54	0.31	-0.81	1.13	-0.27	20	-27	47	14.7	15.5	-0.88	16.3	15.8	0.50
Jason Kidd	55	53	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.35	12	-19	31	14.5	15.8	-1.28	16.4	15.7	0.68
Dirk Nowitzki	77	75	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.37	10	-17	27	14.5	17.4	-2.85	16.1	16.5	-0.45
Dominique Jones	29	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	0	-7	15.8	14.7	1.17	16.7	15.9	0.84
Vince Carter	51	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.10	-15	8	-23	15.1	14.9	0.21	15.6	16.7	-1.03
Jason Terry	59	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.35	-3	-4	1	14.8	15.5	-0.69	16.0	16.3	-0.28
Shawn Marion	69	66	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	3	-13	15.3	14.4	0.90	16.1	16.1	0.02
Lamar Odom	37	36	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	10	-27	15.9	14.5	1.44	16.0	16.2	-0.22
Brandan Wright	38	36	-0.80	0.30	-1.09	-0.06	-25	18	-43	15.7	14.5	1.20	16.1	16.2	-0.13

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	55	55	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.28	21	-14	35	16.8	15.1	1.73	15.1	14.8	0.30
Steve Novak	44	46	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.31	17	-10	27	16.2	16.1	0.05	15.2	14.9	0.30
Jared Jeffries	52	51	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.15	17	-10	27	16.5	15.6	0.95	15.5	14.4	1.15
Jeremy Lin	85	88	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.21	14	-7	21	16.3	13.8	2.46	15.2	12.0	3.23
Tyson Chandler	65	69	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.02	9	-2	11	16.1	16.2	-0.14	15.0	15.2	-0.24
Amar'e Stoudemire	64	67	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.42	-18	25	-43	16.3	15.8	0.50	14.5	16.4	-1.94
Iman Shumpert	39	41	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.15	-14	21	-35	13.9	17.8	-3.96	15.0	15.1	-0.08
Landry Fields	51	53	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.02	-11	18	-29	16.3	15.9	0.32	14.7	15.4	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.62,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.2,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.38,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.68,0.83,0.91,0.73,0.81,0.71,0.9,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 93, LAC 99	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.26,0.35,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.25,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.75,0.96,1	90.7%
DEN 83, MIN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.25,0.29,0.35,0.2,0.11,0.06,0.19,0.25,0.38,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.93,0.98,1,1	89.9%
IND 96, NYK 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.2,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.54,0.74,0.88,0.91,0.75,0.85,0.85,0.85,1	89.6%