NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	8.4 [161]		MVP	Richard Jefferson (SAS): +28.9%
Detroit Pistons	95		Comeback	2.6 [545]		LVP	Tayshaun Prince (DET): -20.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Jefferson	0.29	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.09	0.20	0.01	7	72%	0.29	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tony Parker	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.01,0.15	-0.07	0.22	0.00	13	42%	0.20	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.09
Kawhi Leonard	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	6	85%	0.12	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	10	45%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Danny Green	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tiago Splitter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.03
Matt Bonner	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.04,-0.04	0.07	-0.12	-0.01	6	79%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.18
Tim Duncan	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	17	47%	0.05	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.04
Gary Neal	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	8	25%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	4	10%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	4	87%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.08	0.08	0.14	-0.03	0.02	12	68%	0.10	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.08
Walker Russell	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.04	0.02	17	46%	0.05	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.02	-0.08	0.01	2	75%	0.05	2	-0.11	8	50%	-0.16
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	13	38%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.12	-0.01	0.01	11	17%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.01	-0.18	0.02	16	53%	-0.01	3	-0.20	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	28.6	17.6	27.0	1.8	38.4	139.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +48.3%

DET -12.7%

DET -7.1%

SAS +17.7%

SAS +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	14.5	15.8	15.6	105.3	99.0	102.8
season	15.3	16.3		109.1	99.5
opponent	15.4	15.2		104.4	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	11.8	13.0	17.3	16.7	14.5
DET	14.9	17.5	16.2	14.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	50	49	0.94	-0.44	1.37	0.44	17	-13	30	13.0	16.3	-3.36	16.2	15.3	0.93
Tony Parker	66	66	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.57	5	-1	6	15.0	13.3	1.72	15.8	15.7	0.15
Matt Bonner	40	41	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.40	6	-2	8	15.2	14.1	1.12	15.9	15.7	0.19
Tim Duncan	66	67	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	0	4	13.9	16.0	-2.14	15.6	16.2	-0.62
Richard Jefferson	66	68	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.34	2	2	0	14.2	15.4	-1.23	15.4	16.6	-1.13
Tiago Splitter	43	42	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.11	4	0	4	15.0	14.2	0.78	16.6	15.1	1.47
DeJuan Blair	31	33	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	2	0	14.4	14.6	-0.17	16.0	15.7	0.35
Gary Neal	31	33	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	-0.15	-4	8	-12	13.4	15.1	-1.76	15.8	15.7	0.07
Danny Green	44	46	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.02	-9	13	-22	15.5	13.7	1.86	14.9	16.6	-1.73
Kawhi Leonard	33	35	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.12	-7	11	-18	16.5	13.5	2.96	15.9	15.7	0.14

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	41	40	0.33	-0.83	1.15	0.03	10	-14	24	15.2	16.2	-1.00	14.1	14.9	-0.80
Walker Russell	16	15	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-1	-2	16.7	15.6	1.17	12.2	15.0	-2.77
Jonas Jerebko	41	39	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.27	7	-11	18	15.7	15.8	-0.07	15.1	14.1	1.02
Austin Daye	12	13	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-2	0	17.1	15.6	1.50	13.4	14.7	-1.33
Ben Wallace	50	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.44	8	-12	20	15.2	16.4	-1.19	15.7	13.2	2.50
Greg Monroe	46	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.06	-12	8	-20	16.4	15.2	1.19	13.2	15.7	-2.50
Rodney Stuckey	72	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.37	2	-6	8	15.5	16.5	-0.92	15.6	11.1	4.56
Jason Maxiell	53	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	6	-16	16.1	15.4	0.68	14.8	14.2	0.62
Brandon Knight	74	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.31	-8	4	-12	15.7	16.1	-0.42	14.2	15.7	-1.50
Tayshaun Prince	75	74	-0.92	0.42	-1.33	-0.57	-12	8	-20	15.8	15.7	0.07	14.2	15.7	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.17,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.57,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 80, ORL 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.25,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.17,0.21,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.43,0.47,0	92.6%
SAC 114, DEN 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.32,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.58,0	92.2%
POR 90, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.23,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.27,0	91.0%