NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	89		Excitement	9.1 [104]		MVP	Ryan Anderson (ORL): +36.1%
Orlando Magic	87		Comeback	3.1 [223]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -42.7%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16	0.08	0.12	0.04	8	65%	0.16	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Joe Johnson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.15,0.15	-0.03	0.13	-0.06	16	42%	0.18	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.04	0.08	-0.02	11	59%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	56%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Ivan Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	67%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Tracy McGrady	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Dampier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.2	-0.07	-0.13	0.00	22	46%	0.03	4	-0.24	6	67%	-0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.14	0.24	0.01	13	72%	0.38	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	-0.06	0.30	-0.01	15	53%	0.41	5	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,-0.05	-0.05	0.09	-0.12	0.02	10	61%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.13
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.03,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13,-0.28	-0.28	-0.09	-0.19	0.01	9	56%	0.04	6	-0.33	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.35,-0.35,-0.43	-0.43	-0.09	-0.35	-0.01	20	37%	-0.36	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	21.4	1.8	27.3	15.8	24.9	1.7	35.3	2.7	18.2	149.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	1.9	17.4	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +39.6%

ATL +2.4%

ORL -11.8%

ATL +25.2%

ORL -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	ORL	NBA	ATL	ORL	NBA
this game	16.7	16.8	15.6	93.7	91.6	102.8
season	15.7	16.2		102.5	102.8
opponent	15.8	15.9		103.0	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ATL	15.8	18.8	15.3	17.9	14.9	16.7
ORL	16.2	17.2	18.3	16.4	15.1	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	76	77	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.65	0	2	-2	16.6	17.1	-0.54	16.9	16.6	0.30
Jeff Teague	66	68	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-9	20	17.7	14.3	3.40	17.3	15.5	1.79
Josh Smith	86	84	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.36	8	-6	14	16.7	16.6	0.13	16.5	19.0	-2.49
Joe Johnson	72	73	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.37	4	-2	6	16.5	17.3	-0.83	16.6	17.3	-0.67
Marvin Williams	62	64	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	-4	10	16.5	17.0	-0.45	17.2	15.9	1.38
Kirk Hinrich	28	27	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.33	-7	9	-16	14.8	17.5	-2.68	15.5	17.3	-1.79
Erick Dampier	4	3	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	0	2	16.0	16.7	-0.70	9.0	17.1	-8.05
Jannero Pargo	9	9	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.01	1	1	0	20.1	16.3	3.80	16.7	16.8	-0.15
Vladimir Radmanovic	7	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	2	-2	20.3	16.4	3.90	16.9	16.8	0.08
Ivan Johnson	11	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	6	-10	17.8	16.5	1.29	17.7	16.7	1.09
Tracy McGrady	30	28	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.08	-2	4	-6	15.8	17.1	-1.23	18.2	16.2	2.06
Willie Green	24	22	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.06	-9	11	-20	15.6	17.0	-1.40	15.6	17.2	-1.51

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glen Davis	39	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-1	0	17.0	16.6	0.38	16.3	16.9	-0.59
JJ Redick	29	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.12	0	-2	2	17.6	16.4	1.18	18.6	15.8	2.86
Jameer Nelson	67	66	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.37	6	-8	14	16.8	16.9	-0.08	17.0	15.9	1.12
Quentin Richardson	28	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	1	-4	18.2	16.2	2.06	15.8	17.0	-1.26
Hedo Turkoglu	62	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-6	10	16.4	17.6	-1.28	16.9	16.2	0.75
Chris Duhon	28	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	6	-14	16.9	16.8	0.08	15.9	17.0	-1.12
Dwight Howard	80	81	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-2	2	16.6	18.1	-1.50	16.3	18.6	-2.23
Jason Richardson	71	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	4	-10	16.3	18.3	-2.05	16.0	18.7	-2.72
Ryan Anderson	71	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.45	-2	0	-2	16.9	16.4	0.57	17.2	14.9	2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.54,0.76,0.63,0.22,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 99, CLE 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.37,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.31,0.39,0.17,0.1,0.05,0.54,0.69,0.55,0.43,0.16,0	92.5%
SEA 113, LAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.15,0.46,0.53,0.63,0.22,0.08,0	91.3%
SAC 112, SEA 106	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.47,0.48,0.58,0.44,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.37,0.29,0.32,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.15,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.16,0.5,0.48,0.61,0.23,0.09,0	91.0%