NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	93		Excitement	7.1 [324]		MVP	Al Harrington (DEN): +17.1%
Denver Nuggets	89		Comeback	1.6 [372]		LVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): -12.4%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Goudelock	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.08	0.07	-0.02	10	65%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.01	13	73%	0.22	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	6	44%	0.09	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.09
Derek Fisher	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	7	62%	0.13	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kapono	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	10	54%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.02,-0.03,-0.06	-0.09	0.03	-0.00	23	38%	0.02	2	-0.08	7	71%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.17	0.17	0.09	0.09	0.01	16	63%	0.22	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.04,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	12	43%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	89%	0.17	5	-0.17	6	100%	0.05
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.05	0.02	12	52%	-0.01	1	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	0.01	3	67%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	7	14%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	9	27%	-0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	3.5	29.9	17.8	30.0	3.5	43.7	151.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +47.0%

DEN -7.6%

LAL +14.8%

LAL +3.6%

DEN -7.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.8	13.5	15.6	97.9	93.7	102.8
season	16.2	14.5		103.8	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.1		104.5	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.8	16.2	16.7	19.7	16.8
DEN	15.9	13.3	13.3	11.6	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	76	76	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	-2	8	16.7	17.4	-0.68	13.1	15.3	-2.21
Metta World Peace	66	67	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.26	7	-3	10	16.5	17.6	-1.05	13.3	14.0	-0.77
Pau Gasol	72	73	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.24	6	-2	8	16.6	17.4	-0.81	13.0	15.1	-2.08
Andrew Bynum	67	70	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	0	4	16.6	17.2	-0.61	13.8	12.7	1.11
Derek Fisher	55	58	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.28	1	3	-2	16.3	17.5	-1.26	13.1	14.1	-0.96
Andrew Goudelock	40	37	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	1	2	17.5	16.3	1.26	14.1	13.1	0.96
Matt Barnes	31	29	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.25	-3	7	-10	17.0	16.7	0.27	13.6	13.5	0.08
Troy Murphy	49	46	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	6	-8	17.7	15.9	1.76	14.1	12.9	1.19
Jason Kapono	19	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	6	-8	17.4	16.7	0.68	15.3	13.1	2.21

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Timofey Mozgov	16	17	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.03	3	-7	10	10.4	14.1	-3.68	16.9	16.8	0.15
Kosta Koufos	29	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.13	2	-6	8	13.5	13.5	-0.02	17.3	16.6	0.70
Rudy Fernandez	39	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.19	4	-8	12	13.2	13.7	-0.49	18.0	15.9	2.08
Corey Brewer	18	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	0	-4	14.0	13.4	0.62	16.9	16.8	0.15
Danilo Gallinari	58	58	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.13	-1	-3	2	13.2	13.9	-0.74	16.4	17.5	-1.09
Arron Afflalo	51	50	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	3	-10	13.7	13.3	0.37	15.6	18.2	-2.62
Andre Miller	57	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.42	1	-5	6	13.2	13.9	-0.62	18.2	14.5	3.74
Ty Lawson	71	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	0	-4	13.6	13.2	0.38	16.6	17.5	-0.96
Nene	63	61	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.31	-6	2	-8	14.0	12.4	1.64	16.6	17.3	-0.69
Al Harrington	73	71	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.26	-8	4	-12	13.9	12.0	1.89	16.4	18.1	-1.74

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.24,0.33,0.47,0.22,0.09,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 115, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.29,0.14,0,0	94.2%
CHI 105, DET 96	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.65,0.58,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.53,0.39,0.05,0,0	92.8%
SAS 67, MIA 65	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.46,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.29,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.15,0	92.3%