NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	94		Excitement	4.4 [743]		MVP	Marco Belinelli (NOH): +13.2%
Denver Nuggets	81		Comeback	1.5 [86]		LVP	Andre Miller (DEN): -12.1%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0.13	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.02	0.00	13	73%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.02	-0.03	16	62%	0.14	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carldell Johnson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.02	2	75%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
DaJuan Summers	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trey Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	4	62%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Carl Landry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	15	55%	0.05	4	-0.07	8	62%	-0.03
Gustavo Ayon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	11	65%	0.10	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	12	58%	0.10	4	-0.07	2	50%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	-0.02	0.02	12	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	8	41%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.5	30.5	15.5	27.2	1.8	30.2	131.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +41.8%

DEN -3.6%

NOH +11.0%

NOH +0.1%

NOH +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DEN	NBA	NOH	DEN	NBA
this game	18.7	13.4	15.6	105.6	89.0	102.8
season	16.3	14.5		99.2	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.7		104.5	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	17.6	19.0	18.9	19.4	18.7
DEN	11.2	13.1	14.7	14.9	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carl Landry	67	69	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.07	20	-7	27	19.0	17.6	1.41	13.8	12.1	1.68
Al-Farouq Aminu	51	52	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.05	12	1	11	18.9	18.4	0.43	12.8	14.1	-1.34
Emeka Okafor	46	48	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.09	7	6	1	18.5	18.9	-0.41	13.5	13.2	0.29
Greivis Vasquez	29	27	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	7	-1	18.0	19.0	-1.08	12.6	13.7	-1.15
Marco Belinelli	57	60	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.13	13	0	13	18.2	19.7	-1.50	13.1	13.9	-0.82
Jarrett Jack	64	67	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	6	1	19.2	17.5	1.69	13.7	12.4	1.34
DaJuan Summers	41	43	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.05	5	8	-3	18.4	19.0	-0.61	14.0	12.7	1.30
Chris Kaman	53	55	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.05	8	5	3	18.3	19.3	-0.98	13.3	13.4	-0.04
Carldell Johnson	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.26	-4	17	-21	19.7	18.3	1.42	13.5	13.3	0.22
Trey Johnson	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	17	-21	15.0	18.8	-3.78	7.0	13.4	-6.43
Gustavo Ayon	10	8	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.14	-5	18	-23	20.1	18.5	1.58	11.4	13.6	-2.18

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarre Carroll	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-19	25	12.3	13.4	-1.06	13.3	18.9	-5.55
Chris Andersen	11	10	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-12	11	12.5	13.5	-0.93	19.3	18.6	0.68
Timofey Mozgov	21	22	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-15	17	12.8	13.5	-0.72	20.5	18.1	2.46
Kosta Koufos	16	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.23	4	-17	21	17.2	12.5	4.72	18.0	18.8	-0.84
Corey Brewer	16	15	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-13	13	11.4	13.8	-2.34	18.3	18.8	-0.44
Arron Afflalo	65	66	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.21	0	-13	13	13.0	14.3	-1.38	19.0	18.0	1.00
Ty Lawson	65	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.01	-9	-4	-5	12.8	14.9	-2.13	18.8	18.4	0.44
Al Harrington	33	31	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.02	-11	-2	-9	14.5	12.7	1.71	18.8	18.6	0.22
Rudy Fernandez	50	46	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	-4	-5	14.9	11.5	3.32	18.7	18.7	-0.00
Nene	59	60	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.14	-16	3	-19	12.6	14.8	-2.19	18.2	19.8	-1.58
Andre Miller	42	39	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.00	-13	0	-13	14.1	12.7	1.40	18.5	18.8	-0.33
Danilo Gallinari	74	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.13	-18	5	-23	12.8	15.7	-2.88	18.6	19.0	-0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.29,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 108, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.09,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%
ORL 99, MIA 87	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
SAC 104, SAS 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.33,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%