NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	73		Excitement	5.1 [640]		MVP	Thaddeus Young (PHI): +9.7%
Philadelphia 76ers	96		Comeback	1.4 [945]		LVP	Brandon Knight (DET): -15.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Bynum	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.05	9	43%	0.01	2	-0.00	5	80%	0.02
Vernon Macklin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.04	16	56%	0.03	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	8	62%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	9	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	13	31%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	11	18%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Knight	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	15	33%	-0.04	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.04	0.02	11	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jodie Meeks	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.17	0.02	0.10	13	72%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	9	44%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	13	48%	0.05	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	14	57%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andres Nocioni	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Craig Brackins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	3	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	22%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	4	42%	-0.01	4	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	9	28%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	29.2	15.6	22.3	2.5	29.5	125.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +36.2%

PHI +4.6%

DET -2.5%

PHI +12.1%

DET -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	PHI	NBA	DET	PHI	NBA
this game	16.4	15.3	15.6	80.2	105.5	102.8
season	16.3	15.6		99.5	101.0
opponent	16.1	15.4		97.6	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.0	17.7	17.2	15.7	16.4
PHI	15.6	13.7	14.9	17.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vernon Macklin	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-20	17	14.4	16.5	-2.10	15.8	15.2	0.57
Ben Wallace	11	12	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-19	15	18.9	16.0	2.87	13.2	15.6	-2.32
Greg Monroe	67	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.02	-8	-15	7	15.9	17.7	-1.85	15.3	15.1	0.19
Austin Daye	48	48	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	-13	3	15.7	17.2	-1.48	13.7	17.0	-3.25
Damien Wilkins	41	41	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.16	-14	-9	-5	17.4	15.6	1.83	16.2	14.5	1.70
Tayshaun Prince	67	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	-11	-1	15.8	18.1	-2.36	15.4	14.9	0.47
Brandon Knight	71	70	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.14	-14	-9	-5	16.4	16.3	0.04	15.4	14.8	0.65
Jason Maxiell	34	33	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	-14	5	16.6	16.3	0.33	15.0	15.4	-0.46
Jonas Jerebko	61	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.25	-21	-2	-19	16.7	15.8	0.92	15.7	14.5	1.23
Will Bynum	50	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.14	-20	-3	-17	16.8	15.8	1.01	15.6	14.8	0.86

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thaddeus Young	52	50	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.09	20	3	17	14.4	16.5	-2.10	17.6	14.9	2.70
Evan Turner	44	44	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.03	17	6	11	15.8	14.7	1.07	17.5	15.3	2.25
Louis Williams	47	46	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.11	17	6	11	14.0	16.6	-2.53	17.0	15.8	1.24
Jrue Holiday	68	69	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.08	16	7	9	14.9	16.3	-1.39	16.7	15.5	1.11
Spencer Hawes	64	66	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.14	14	9	5	15.2	15.3	-0.05	15.7	18.1	-2.34
Elton Brand	56	56	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	17	-11	16.0	14.1	1.96	16.4	16.3	0.07
Andre Iguodala	64	64	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.07	7	16	-9	15.0	15.9	-0.84	16.0	17.4	-1.40
Jodie Meeks	45	46	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.24	11	12	-1	16.8	13.7	3.08	15.1	17.7	-2.67
Andres Nocioni	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	20	-17	15.8	15.2	0.57	14.4	16.5	-2.10
Craig Brackins	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	22	-21	15.8	15.2	0.57	13.7	16.5	-2.76
Nikola Vucevic	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	20	-17	15.8	15.2	0.57	14.4	16.5	-2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.93,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 80, SEA 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.77,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	95.3%
BOS 92, ORL 113	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
PHX 97, LAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.83,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1	95.2%