NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	108		Excitement	4.1 [1033]		MVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): +25.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	87		Comeback	1.6 [188]		LVP	Brandon Roy (POR): -12.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.25	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.17	0.07	-0.01	19	71%	0.29	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
David Lee	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.15	0.04	-0.01	17	78%	0.24	4	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Stephen Curry	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.00	0.05	21	58%	0.11	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Lou Amundson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	3	60%	0.01	0	0.00	9	78%	-0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Adrien	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.01	-0.02	11	18%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.03	-0.02	11	63%	0.14	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	14	54%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.02	15	52%	0.01	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.02
Marcus Camby	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	100%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Armon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	7	67%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.02	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.11	0.00	-0.07	9	11%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	11	21%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.8	28.0	15.6	27.4	2.4	26.3	126.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +49.9%

POR -0.6%

GSW +3.2%

POR -3.9%

GSW +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	POR	NBA	GSW	POR	NBA
this game	16.4	17.1	15.5	125.6	101.2	105.7
season	14.8	16.5		106.6	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.2		105.6	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.9	18.1	13.6	20.3	16.4
POR	16.7	18.8	19.1	14.0	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	61	62	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.04	21	0	21	15.4	18.7	-3.24	17.5	16.1	1.42
David Lee	75	74	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.11	23	-2	25	15.9	19.5	-3.52	17.2	16.2	0.99
Monta Ellis	78	78	0.53	-0.03	0.55	-0.15	23	-2	25	16.3	17.4	-1.09	17.5	12.9	4.66
Stephen Curry	74	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.15	20	1	19	16.5	15.8	0.64	17.4	15.2	2.16
Lou Amundson	47	47	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.12	12	9	3	18.5	13.8	4.64	15.7	18.7	-3.00
Ekpe Udoh	35	36	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.03	6	15	-9	13.5	18.4	-4.94	18.4	16.1	2.30
Reggie Williams	14	13	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	20	-19	16.4	16.4	-0.03	15.1	17.5	-2.39
Jeremy Lin	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	23	-25	16.4	16.4	0.02	10.2	17.4	-7.19
Jeff Adrien	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	23	-25	16.4	16.4	0.02	10.2	17.4	-7.19
Vladimir Radmanovic	11	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.04	1	20	-19	18.3	16.1	2.17	20.1	16.7	3.42
Al Thornton	25	25	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.15	2	19	-17	19.4	15.1	4.25	16.2	17.5	-1.33

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	20	20	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-23	25	17.5	17.0	0.58	13.7	17.2	-3.50
Luke Babbitt	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-21	21	12.1	17.5	-5.40	17.3	16.3	0.98
Armon Johnson	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-23	25	12.1	17.5	-5.40	17.3	16.3	0.98
Chris Johnson	14	12	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.11	-6	-15	9	13.2	17.9	-4.65	15.7	16.5	-0.74
Wesley Matthews	53	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.12	-11	-10	-1	18.1	15.5	2.63	15.7	17.5	-1.79
Andre Miller	56	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.09	-11	-10	-1	18.1	15.3	2.72	16.7	15.8	0.96
Patty Mills	16	16	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.11	-12	-9	-3	15.0	17.6	-2.59	15.2	16.6	-1.39
Rudy Fernandez	42	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-10	-1	15.0	19.1	-4.11	17.6	15.1	2.56
Brandon Roy	27	27	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.05	-12	-9	-3	16.8	17.3	-0.48	17.5	15.9	1.60
Gerald Wallace	65	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.12	-16	-5	-11	17.6	15.4	2.22	16.4	16.3	0.15
Nicolas Batum	52	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.00	-13	-8	-5	17.9	15.9	1.92	16.3	16.6	-0.28
LaMarcus Aldridge	71	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.05	-17	-4	-13	18.0	12.8	5.21	16.4	16.2	0.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 102, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
LAL 110, GSW 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	95.1%
PHX 87, GSW 69	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%