NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	104		Excitement	7.5 [337]		MVP	Carlos Delfino (MIL): +19.9%
Toronto Raptors	98		Comeback	2.7 [669]		LVP	Drew Gooden (MIL): -12.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Delfino	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.06	0.14	0.00	12	58%	0.24	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	2	117%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	125%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.02	-0.03	18	57%	0.05	3	-0.01	8	87%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.06	0.02	12	65%	0.16	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
John Salmons	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	6	42%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Keyon Dooling	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	7	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Drew Gooden	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.14,-0.2,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13	0.02	-0.10	0.04	17	52%	-0.02	2	-0.11	8	75%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.01	5	67%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.01	0.01	14	69%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Reggie Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.02	0.02	15	59%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.04
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sonny Weems	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	14	60%	0.12	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	11	54%	0.06	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	7	57%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	28.2	15.5	23.5	2.4	34.4	130.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +15.6%

TOR -5.4%

MIL +27.3%

MIL +10.4%

MIL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.6	16.3	15.5	118.2	112.6	105.7
season	16.2	15.1		100.1	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.4		111.2	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.8	17.2	15.2	15.2	16.6
TOR	14.8	14.8	20.1	16.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	46	46	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.30	15	-9	24	16.0	17.2	-1.14	16.3	16.4	-0.13
John Salmons	74	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	4	-2	16.1	19.1	-2.98	16.8	14.0	2.79
Carlos Delfino	77	76	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.36	2	4	-2	16.8	15.0	1.79	16.2	17.6	-1.48
Brandon Jennings	76	75	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.33	2	4	-2	16.1	19.7	-3.59	16.6	15.0	1.56
Andrew Bogut	69	68	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.31	2	4	-2	16.2	17.9	-1.76	16.5	15.7	0.78
Keyon Dooling	11	10	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.07	9	-3	12	16.5	16.6	-0.13	16.1	16.4	-0.28
Jon Brockman	3	2	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	1	4	16.0	16.6	-0.59	21.0	16.2	4.76
Earl Boykins	12	12	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	2	2	19.7	16.1	3.59	15.0	16.6	-1.56
Michael Redd	14	15	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	7	-8	17.9	16.3	1.62	15.3	16.6	-1.30
Luc Mbah a Moute	58	58	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.05	-10	16	-26	17.5	14.8	2.68	16.0	17.0	-0.93

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jose Calderon	46	46	0.19	-0.69	0.88	-0.10	10	-16	26	16.0	16.7	-0.73	17.9	15.1	2.73
James Johnson	60	60	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-10	14	16.1	16.8	-0.68	16.3	17.1	-0.74
Amir Johnson	47	47	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.27	7	-13	20	15.3	17.6	-2.28	17.4	15.6	1.84
Sonny Weems	13	13	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.07	-10	4	-14	16.0	16.4	-0.41	18.2	16.3	1.95
Andrea Bargnani	57	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.44	7	-13	20	16.7	15.6	1.14	16.3	17.2	-0.95
Reggie Evans	25	25	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.11	-12	6	-18	18.0	15.7	2.38	15.1	17.1	-2.02
DeMar DeRozan	63	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-7	8	17.0	14.7	2.32	16.0	18.0	-1.94
Leandro Barbosa	41	43	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	1	-8	15.4	17.2	-1.76	16.3	16.8	-0.57
Ed Davis	45	45	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.04	-14	8	-22	16.0	16.7	-0.71	16.9	16.2	0.66
Jerryd Bayless	38	39	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.31	-16	10	-26	17.2	15.7	1.44	16.1	17.0	-0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.52,0.62,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.62,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.26,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.21,0.1,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 82, GSW 78	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.47,0.29,0.25,0.04,0	92.3%
BOS 87, MIA 82	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.6,0.53,0.31,0.21,0.06,0.15,0	92.2%
WAS 89, CLE 84	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.7,0.54,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.44,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.44,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.42,0.25,0.22,0.05,0.04,0	91.6%