NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	82		Excitement	7.9 [150]		MVP	Malik Rose (SAS): +20.4%
Golden State Warriors	78		Comeback	3.1 [452]		LVP	Terry Cummings (GSW): -19.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.06	0.15	-0.00	9	65%	0.20	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Steve Kerr	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14	0.11	0.03	0.00	4	100%	0.14	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Antonio Daniels	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.07	-0.00	3	87%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02	-0.03	0.02	0.01	7	57%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Elie	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	36%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Sean Elliott	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.11,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	10	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	7	86%	0.04
David Robinson	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.06	-0.07	8	17%	-0.12	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.19,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-0.03	18	40%	-0.08	4	-0.09	7	100%	0.07

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	16	56%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Felton Spencer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	15	47%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	7	14%	-0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.06	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	10	50%	0.07	4	-0.21	2	50%	-0.02
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	13	37%	-0.14	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	12	35%	-0.05	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.06	-0.14	-0.00	7	29%	-0.15	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.4	29.4	15.7	24.2	1.6	34.8	134.0
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.3%

SAS +25.9%

GSW -44.7%

SAS +25.2%

SAS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	16.3	17.8	15.8	97.6	91.8	99.6
season	15.9	15.9		101.1	95.1
opponent	15.5	15.9		98.1	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.9	18.1	18.8	12.0	16.3
GSW	16.6	17.9	17.2	19.3	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	48	48	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.19	16	-12	28	14.6	18.6	-4.08	17.2	18.4	-1.18
Tim Duncan	64	64	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.53	-1	5	-6	16.6	15.3	1.26	17.9	17.3	0.57
Avery Johnson	55	55	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.40	-1	5	-6	17.4	14.3	3.05	18.0	17.3	0.77
Sean Elliott	56	58	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.41	-2	6	-8	16.3	16.4	-0.07	17.8	17.7	0.04
Steve Kerr	45	48	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	-7	18	16.0	16.7	-0.71	17.9	17.6	0.30
Mario Elie	39	38	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.58	-13	17	-30	15.7	16.9	-1.20	16.6	18.7	-2.14
Jerome Kersey	25	24	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.08	7	-3	10	16.3	16.3	-0.04	17.9	17.7	0.15
Antonio Daniels	27	27	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.03	5	-1	6	15.3	16.8	-1.55	18.4	17.4	1.00
Jaren Jackson	5	5	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.09	5	-1	6	18.8	16.2	2.65	18.2	17.7	0.46
Will Perdue	18	18	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.15	5	-1	6	18.3	15.8	2.58	15.7	18.3	-2.59
David Robinson	38	40	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.19	-12	16	-28	17.1	15.7	1.36	19.1	16.6	2.47

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mills	27	26	0.18	-0.68	0.85	-0.15	11	-15	26	17.9	17.7	0.18	17.2	15.9	1.33
Erick Dampier	57	57	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.04	5	-9	14	18.6	16.0	2.58	17.3	14.3	3.02
Felton Spencer	3	3	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.01	2	-6	8	14.3	17.9	-3.56	22.3	16.1	6.25
Tony Delk	20	19	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.04	-3	-1	-2	13.9	18.9	-4.99	16.4	16.3	0.08
Bimbo Coles	62	63	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.43	8	-12	20	18.1	16.8	1.29	16.2	16.6	-0.35
Muggsy Bogues	23	21	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.05	-12	8	-20	16.8	18.1	-1.29	16.6	16.2	0.35
Adonal Foyle	35	35	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.10	-14	10	-24	18.8	17.1	1.71	17.6	15.4	2.21
John Starks	62	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.43	4	-8	12	18.0	17.3	0.69	16.1	17.0	-0.97
Jason Caffey	57	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.45	4	-8	12	16.9	19.6	-2.75	15.0	19.0	-3.98
Donyell Marshall	46	45	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.38	-8	4	-12	18.2	17.2	0.99	15.5	17.2	-1.67
Terry Cummings	33	31	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.22	-17	13	-30	18.3	17.4	0.93	15.7	16.7	-1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.47,0.29,0.25,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 87, MIA 82	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.6,0.53,0.31,0.21,0.06,0.15,0	93.3%
MIL 104, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.52,0.62,0.49,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.5,0.62,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.26,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.21,0.1,0.04,0	92.3%
MIN 103, PHX 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.66,0.6,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.33,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.62,0.58,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.61,0.47,0.45,0.16,0.07,0	91.3%