NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	82		Excitement	9.1 [109]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +33.1%
Orlando Magic	85		Comeback	1.8 [876]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -26.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.29	0.07	0.21	-0.00	7	68%	0.37	2	-0.08	11	91%	0.17
Kenyon Martin	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.08	-0.01	7	53%	0.12	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Nene	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.00	8	58%	0.14	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.08
J.R. Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	30%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.04,0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	16	59%	0.20	6	-0.27	2	50%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	11	18%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raymond Felton	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22	-0.14	-0.08	-0.01	11	18%	-0.18	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.27	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.27	-0.06	-0.19	0.02	9	50%	0.01	4	-0.27	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.33	0.33	-0.01	0.33	-0.01	12	54%	0.44	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.06	-0.01	12	54%	0.14	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.09
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	0.02	14	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	0.00	9	52%	0.12	5	-0.17	13	46%	-0.12
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	13	36%	-0.00	1	-0.06	10	90%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.8	31.3	16.5	26.8	2.6	39.7	142.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +64.8%

DEN -32.1%

ORL +1.5%

ORL +14.6%

ORL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.8	15.5	87.2	92.4	105.7
season	14.3	15.2		110.7	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.5		101.1	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.5	17.0	16.2	12.4	15.2
ORL	12.8	16.5	16.6	17.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	34	32	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-1	-1	13.1	16.4	-3.25	15.1	16.1	-1.01
Ty Lawson	58	58	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.22	3	-6	9	16.5	13.2	3.24	15.7	15.9	-0.26
Danilo Gallinari	49	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	3	-9	14.6	15.9	-1.36	17.1	14.2	2.85
Wilson Chandler	72	70	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.37	4	-7	11	15.0	15.9	-0.90	15.3	17.1	-1.82
Arron Afflalo	45	42	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.30	1	-4	5	16.1	14.4	1.62	15.0	16.3	-1.29
Raymond Felton	54	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-1	-1	14.0	16.8	-2.79	16.5	14.7	1.79
J.R. Smith	32	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	3	-9	13.7	16.0	-2.28	16.2	15.5	0.72
Nene	60	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.40	-1	-2	1	16.4	13.1	3.25	16.1	15.1	1.01
Kenyon Martin	66	64	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.37	-6	3	-9	16.0	13.5	2.51	14.9	17.7	-2.82

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	72	71	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.41	3	0	3	15.8	15.6	0.19	15.8	13.3	2.48
Jameer Nelson	66	66	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	0	3	16.0	15.0	1.05	16.1	13.1	3.06
Dwight Howard	70	70	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.44	1	2	-1	16.0	15.1	0.87	16.0	13.1	2.87
Hedo Turkoglu	72	76	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	0	3	15.5	16.5	-1.02	15.5	13.9	1.58
Ryan Anderson	34	35	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.05	7	-4	11	15.3	16.0	-0.77	14.1	15.9	-1.77
Quentin Richardson	43	43	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.13	3	0	3	16.1	15.4	0.73	13.9	16.4	-2.51
Brandon Bass	66	69	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.28	-4	7	-11	15.7	16.0	-0.29	15.0	15.7	-0.68
Chris Duhon	26	28	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	3	-3	15.0	16.0	-1.05	13.1	16.1	-3.06
Earl Clark	11	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	4	-5	16.1	15.7	0.39	14.6	15.3	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.71,0.73,0.83,0.6,0.6,0.81,0.85,0.77,0.87,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 96, DET 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.99,1	93.3%
PHI 95, IND 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.74,0.62,0.75,0.88,0.79,0.65,0.71,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.97,1	92.6%
VAN 91, MIA 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.46,0.51,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.73,0.81,0.92,0.77,0.85,1	92.5%