NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	79		Excitement	7.1 [412]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +19.2%
New Jersey Nets	88		Comeback	2.7 [231]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -28.7%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.11	0.05	-0.03	14	66%	0.19	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.06	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.06	-0.10	0.02	14	64%	0.08	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	11	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Glen Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.08	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	16	47%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Paul Pierce	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	10	30%	-0.05	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Rajon Rondo	-0.29	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.29,-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.01	10	10%	-0.19	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.07	0.01	11	56%	0.13	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.02
Sundiata Gaines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	2	75%	0.10	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	16	57%	0.19	3	-0.13	3	67%	-0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	11	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	11	57%	0.02	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	14	50%	0.07	3	-0.14	4	50%	-0.02
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	6	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.0	26.0	14.8	23.6	1.0	41.0	132.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +39.9%

NJN +4.4%

NJN +1.4%

NJN +6.8%

BOS -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	NJN	NBA	BOS	NJN	NBA
this game	16.8	16.3	15.5	90.8	101.1	105.7
season	15.7	16.4		104.8	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.8		108.5	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.9	16.7	16.7	16.9	16.8
NJN	14.4	16.0	16.0	19.1	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nenad Krstic	37	40	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.02	9	-18	27	15.9	17.4	-1.52	15.1	17.3	-2.24
Paul Pierce	58	60	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.22	10	-19	29	15.7	19.0	-3.31	16.1	16.8	-0.68
Carlos Arroyo	31	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-9	9	16.5	16.9	-0.43	16.6	16.1	0.52
Sasha Pavlovic	11	11	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-3	-3	22.3	16.0	6.27	17.5	16.1	1.41
Troy Murphy	16	16	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-1	-7	17.8	16.6	1.25	16.6	16.3	0.31
Kevin Garnett	58	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	0	-9	16.6	17.3	-0.72	16.2	16.6	-0.39
Jeff Green	44	44	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.21	-7	-2	-5	17.5	16.0	1.48	16.9	15.7	1.12
Rajon Rondo	59	58	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	4	-17	16.9	16.5	0.43	16.1	16.8	-0.78
Ray Allen	64	62	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.09	-15	6	-21	16.7	17.1	-0.46	15.8	17.7	-1.92
Glen Davis	57	56	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.37	-6	-3	-3	17.0	16.5	0.50	17.5	14.2	3.29

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Outlaw	61	62	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-1	11	16.9	14.9	1.98	16.9	16.5	0.44
Jordan Farmar	38	38	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.27	3	6	-3	17.1	15.7	1.46	16.3	17.2	-0.85
Sundiata Gaines	12	13	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.05	10	-1	11	15.2	16.5	-1.23	18.4	16.5	1.87
Anthony Morrow	69	70	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	5	-1	15.9	17.9	-1.99	16.2	19.4	-3.18
Kris Humphries	69	68	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.11	7	2	5	16.5	15.6	0.95	16.9	16.5	0.34
Deron Williams	65	64	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	0	9	16.5	15.7	0.78	17.2	15.5	1.73
Johan Petro	21	20	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.18	3	6	-3	16.2	16.3	-0.10	16.9	16.7	0.20
Brook Lopez	73	73	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	13	-17	16.3	16.1	0.20	16.4	18.9	-2.46
Sasha Vujacic	27	27	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.12	3	6	-3	14.3	17.2	-2.87	17.7	16.4	1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.74,0.82,0.88,0.94,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.78,0.61,0.72,0.77,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 106, OKC 114	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.41,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.2%
DET 83, ATL 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.48,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.79,0.73,0.89,0.85,0.73,0.54,0.78,0.84,0.97,1	91.7%
ORL 106, NYK 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.8,0.61,0.39,0.64,0.85,0.91,1	91.5%