NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	99		Excitement	5.5 [747]		MVP	Jason Richardson (ORL): +19.1%
Miami Heat	96		Comeback	40.7 [17]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -18.0%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.18	0.07	0.06	14	86%	0.23	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,0.04,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	0.00	7	69%	0.18	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	3	62%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.04
Dwight Howard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	54%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03	0.10	-0.02	0.05	10	68%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.00	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.00	0.03	6	57%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	15	47%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	3	50%	0.02	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13	0.13	0.18	-0.03	0.01	16	74%	0.16	2	-0.03	7	100%	0.03
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.01,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.18	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.04
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.09	-0.07	0.01	18	58%	0.07	2	-0.05	12	67%	0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	15	39%	-0.03	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	0.00	11	26%	-0.13	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.6	35.0	17.8	30.0	2.8	39.6	155.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +52.8%

MIA -8.7%

ORL +12.7%

MIA -7.2%

ORL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.1	15.5	111.2	106.7	105.7
season	15.2	16.0		106.3	109.0
opponent	15.6	16.2		102.3	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.2	17.1	16.6	14.6	16.1
MIA	15.1	15.0	18.5	16.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	83	82	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.29	13	-10	23	15.9	18.3	-2.41	16.7	9.5	7.23
Jason Richardson	72	73	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.21	15	-12	27	16.1	16.1	0.04	16.9	12.6	4.24
Quentin Richardson	34	31	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.35	9	-6	15	15.6	16.4	-0.72	13.8	17.3	-3.48
Gilbert Arenas	30	29	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.28	10	-7	17	15.5	16.4	-0.89	16.4	15.9	0.48
Ryan Anderson	43	44	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	4	-5	16.1	16.1	-0.04	15.0	17.1	-2.04
Jameer Nelson	64	65	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.21	-5	8	-13	16.4	15.4	1.02	15.9	16.6	-0.65
JJ Redick	25	27	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.07	-1	4	-5	15.7	16.2	-0.57	13.4	17.3	-3.88
Brandon Bass	41	43	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.21	-13	16	-29	16.5	15.8	0.69	16.5	15.7	0.81
Hedo Turkoglu	53	56	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.08	-12	15	-27	16.5	15.4	1.08	17.2	14.2	2.98

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	14	13	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.02	6	-9	15	12.4	16.8	-4.33	18.3	15.7	2.60
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	10	9	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.04	1	-4	5	12.1	16.6	-4.49	14.1	16.3	-2.20
Erick Dampier	54	55	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.21	9	-12	21	17.6	13.8	3.76	17.0	14.7	2.29
Mario Chalmers	43	45	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.11	5	-8	13	17.7	14.6	3.08	15.9	16.2	-0.32
Joel Anthony	21	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	4	-11	14.9	16.5	-1.61	14.7	16.5	-1.79
LeBron James	72	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-3	3	16.2	15.8	0.39	16.6	13.9	2.66
Mike Miller	48	46	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.33	-5	2	-7	14.2	18.2	-4.03	16.2	16.0	0.26
Mike Bibby	37	35	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.28	-7	4	-11	14.9	16.9	-1.94	15.9	16.2	-0.29
Chris Bosh	75	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.40	-8	5	-13	16.7	13.3	3.39	15.7	18.2	-2.54
Dwyane Wade	76	76	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.39	-9	6	-15	16.8	12.4	4.33	15.7	18.3	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.72,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.67,0.53,0.26,0.14,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 119, POR 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.63,0.41,0.2,0.28,0.1,0.05,0.05,0,0	92.4%
BOS 91, ORL 83	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.9,0.82,0.75,0.58,0.53,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.19,0.16,0.04,0.01,0	91.2%
ATL 94, MIN 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.17,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0	90.9%