NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	94		Excitement	4.6 [883]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +25.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	87		Comeback	21.6 [98]		LVP	Ryan Gomes (MIN): -9.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.05	0.18	-0.02	9	70%	0.29	3	-0.03	5	100%	0.04
Tyronn Lue	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	13	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	13	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	21	52%	0.10	6	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Marvin Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	7	57%	-0.02
Shelden Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.02	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.02	0.00	14	67%	0.08	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.02	6	47%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Rashad McCants	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	9	61%	0.07	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.08	-0.06	0.06	13	68%	0.04	3	-0.09	8	87%	-0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	10	33%	-0.04	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	1.5	29.5	17.6	24.1	2.5	31.4	128.7
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +28.4%

ATL +7.7%

ATL +1.1%

ATL +12.6%

ATL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIN	NBA	ATL	MIN	NBA
this game	18.2	16.1	15.4	111.9	103.6	105.7
season	15.4	15.9		104.2	102.2
opponent	15.0	15.7		109.6	107.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	20.9	17.8	14.9	19.9	18.2
MIN	17.9	15.8	15.7	15.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyronn Lue	40	39	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.32	16	-9	25	18.4	18.0	0.35	15.1	16.9	-1.81
Josh Childress	58	56	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.28	15	-8	23	17.8	19.0	-1.19	15.1	18.1	-3.05
Josh Smith	75	74	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.29	10	-3	13	18.4	16.8	1.61	16.0	16.3	-0.26
Joe Johnson	74	74	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.38	4	3	1	18.7	14.6	4.10	16.6	12.5	4.05
Al Horford	48	49	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.42	0	7	-7	19.5	16.5	3.00	16.9	14.9	2.03
Shelden Williams	31	30	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.06	5	2	3	15.9	19.5	-3.61	15.3	16.5	-1.15
Solomon Jones	4	4	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	6	-5	21.0	18.1	2.92	11.0	16.3	-5.33
Marvin Williams	52	55	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.13	-4	11	-15	17.1	20.0	-2.83	15.9	16.3	-0.36
Anthony Johnson	38	39	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	0.03	-12	19	-31	18.7	17.8	0.91	17.8	14.5	3.31

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Madsen	24	24	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.08	10	-17	27	18.5	15.1	3.46	19.7	17.6	2.09
Corey Brewer	20	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-3	-1	17.2	15.7	1.55	17.1	18.5	-1.47
Sebastian Telfair	23	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.05	-6	-1	-5	16.9	15.8	1.16	16.3	18.9	-2.63
Antoine Walker	54	54	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.01	-8	1	-9	14.8	18.4	-3.57	17.5	19.6	-2.10
Greg Buckner	46	45	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.16	-14	7	-21	16.0	16.2	-0.25	15.9	20.9	-5.01
Ryan Gomes	55	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-6	5	15.8	16.5	-0.68	19.1	16.5	2.57
Marko Jaric	61	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-6	5	15.8	16.9	-1.16	18.9	16.3	2.63
Rashad McCants	47	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.53	5	-12	17	16.0	16.2	-0.26	19.8	16.0	3.80
Al Jefferson	67	67	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.29	-6	-1	-5	15.6	17.9	-2.27	18.4	17.5	0.93
Craig Smith	23	23	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.21	-10	3	-13	17.8	15.4	2.42	17.9	18.3	-0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.47,0.29,0.17,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 126, POR 122	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.85,0.89,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.88,0.85,0.77,0.72,0.83,0.89,0.91,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.53,0.35,0.18,0.14,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.3%
BOS 91, ORL 83	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.9,0.82,0.75,0.58,0.53,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.19,0.16,0.04,0.01,0	92.1%
LAC 111, DET 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.82,0.78,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.41,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.01,0,0	91.9%