NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	6.4 [532]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +28.6%
Toronto Raptors	95		Comeback	1.6 [1114]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -18.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	18	61%	0.26	5	-0.15	10	80%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	3	80%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.00	16	57%	0.11	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.03
Mario Chalmers	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.02	18	50%	0.15	5	-0.12	10	70%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	47%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.3,0.29	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.00	26	68%	0.38	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.09	-0.00	20	52%	0.02	1	-0.07	6	100%	0.03
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	10	23%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	9	26%	-0.14	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.3	28.3	15.5	27.5	2.4	33.2	135.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +29.5%

MIA +15.8%

MIA +12.6%

TOR -6.7%

TOR -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.6	15.4	15.5	107.3	99.0	105.7
season	16.0	15.1		109.0	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		111.2	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.6	15.5	13.8	15.5	14.6
TOR	15.2	18.0	15.0	13.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	79	79	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.25	12	-4	16	14.3	15.9	-1.68	15.6	14.9	0.67
Dwyane Wade	79	78	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.22	10	-2	12	14.8	13.5	1.26	15.3	16.1	-0.83
LeBron James	76	76	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.23	6	2	4	14.9	13.4	1.47	14.7	18.3	-3.62
Erick Dampier	56	56	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	7	-6	14.8	14.2	0.62	14.9	16.2	-1.39
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	26	25	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.02	7	1	6	12.8	15.2	-2.41	15.6	15.4	0.22
Eddie House	49	50	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	6	-4	14.7	14.5	0.18	15.7	15.2	0.55
Carlos Arroyo	30	29	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.10	-2	10	-12	15.0	14.4	0.64	17.4	14.6	2.83
Mario Chalmers	32	33	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.02	2	6	-4	14.6	14.5	0.05	15.3	15.5	-0.20
Joel Anthony	14	15	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	8	-8	16.8	14.2	2.60	17.3	15.1	2.25
James Jones	14	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.01	-2	10	-12	13.4	14.8	-1.41	15.8	15.4	0.41

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexis Ajinca	20	21	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-14	20	15.6	15.4	0.21	15.2	14.4	0.86
Leandro Barbosa	50	51	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-11	14	16.1	14.7	1.42	15.2	13.8	1.44
Jerryd Bayless	28	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.11	1	-9	10	17.9	14.4	3.47	13.7	14.9	-1.25
Ed Davis	45	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.18	-1	-7	6	15.7	15.2	0.47	14.5	14.6	-0.16
Sonny Weems	48	51	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	2	-12	16.1	14.8	1.33	13.3	16.0	-2.62
DeMar DeRozan	85	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.19	-8	0	-8	14.9	19.5	-4.64	14.8	13.0	1.83
Amir Johnson	52	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	4	-16	15.0	16.0	-1.00	14.8	14.3	0.52
Jose Calderon	72	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	1	-10	14.4	18.6	-4.25	14.9	13.7	1.19
Andrea Bargnani	80	79	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	2	-12	15.4	15.7	-0.30	14.4	15.4	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.31,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.13,0.18,0.3,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.07,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 85, TOR 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.23,0.33,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0	94.2%
BKN 107, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.01,0	93.6%
TOR 96, WAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.12,0.22,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0	93.3%