NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	96		Excitement	5.9 [605]		MVP	John Lucas III (TOR): +17.1%
Washington Wizards	88		Comeback	1.3 [509]		LVP	John Wall (WAS): -29.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Lucas III	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.09	-0.00	7	71%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.01	18	56%	0.18	4	-0.10	7	86%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	7	64%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	2	87%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Amir Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	6	69%	0.08	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Aaron Gray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	25	47%	0.02	5	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Alan Anderson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	9	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Booker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	6	71%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.02	0.05	9	73%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	19	57%	0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Chris Singleton	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	10	55%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	4	45%	-0.03	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	7	29%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	-0.01	11	29%	-0.04	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
John Wall	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.23,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.29,-0.29,-0.3	-0.30	-0.24	-0.09	-0.03	12	28%	-0.15	7	-0.14	8	87%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.5	28.5	15.8	28.2	2.5	35.4	137.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +55.5%

TOR +0.5%

WAS -1.6%

TOR +2.2%

WAS -6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	15.5	14.8	15.4	101.1	92.6	104.1
season	16.1	15.1		104.4	98.8
opponent	15.7	15.3		101.2	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.0	15.8	16.1	15.1	15.5
WAS	14.4	16.9	13.2	14.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	77	77	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.15	19	-11	30	14.6	19.3	-4.70	13.8	19.1	-5.26
Amir Johnson	55	55	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.19	11	-3	14	15.2	16.0	-0.77	15.1	14.3	0.85
Kyle Lowry	66	67	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.11	12	-4	16	14.8	17.2	-2.42	13.8	17.1	-3.34
Alan Anderson	43	43	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.05	7	1	6	16.2	14.9	1.29	15.8	14.0	1.83
Rudy Gay	76	76	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.22	-1	9	-10	15.6	15.2	0.39	14.6	15.5	-0.86
Andrea Bargnani	47	47	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.30	-4	12	-16	15.8	15.2	0.60	15.6	14.0	1.64
Jonas Valanciunas	44	43	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.18	-4	12	-16	16.3	14.8	1.48	12.7	16.5	-3.86
Terrence Ross	5	5	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	7	-6	15.8	15.5	0.29	21.8	14.4	7.40
John Lucas III	29	28	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	12	-16	17.2	14.8	2.42	17.1	13.8	3.34
Aaron Gray	9	9	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	13	-18	16.8	15.4	1.38	20.9	14.2	6.74

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.J. Price	29	29	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.14	9	-17	26	16.2	14.2	2.09	17.9	14.5	3.41
Kevin Seraphin	8	8	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-8	8	14.0	14.9	-0.86	14.5	15.6	-1.12
Chris Singleton	4	4	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-5	2	15.7	14.7	1.00	11.2	15.7	-4.46
Nene	69	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.30	4	-12	16	15.1	13.8	1.30	16.1	14.0	2.02
Trevor Booker	37	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-6	4	16.4	13.8	2.60	16.9	14.7	2.15
Martell Webster	76	76	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.32	3	-11	14	14.6	15.5	-0.86	15.7	14.8	0.92
Bradley Beal	69	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.12	-10	2	-12	13.5	18.3	-4.79	14.8	17.6	-2.76
Trevor Ariza	58	58	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.17	-9	1	-10	16.0	12.9	3.02	15.5	15.5	0.02
Emeka Okafor	59	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.00	-15	7	-22	14.0	16.1	-2.04	15.1	16.2	-1.03
John Wall	66	66	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.13	-17	9	-26	14.2	16.2	-2.09	14.5	17.9	-3.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.12,0.22,0.28,0.19,0.16,0.29,0.24,0.28,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 113, DET 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	93.5%
ATL 99, PHI 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.22,0.15,0.04,0.01,0.02,0	93.4%
CLE 86, PHX 73	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0	93.4%