NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	102		Excitement	6.7 [488]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +34.3%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	5.1 [308]		LVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): -15.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.10	0.25	0.01	25	60%	0.44	4	-0.10	12	75%	-0.02
Andre Miller	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.22,0.25,0.25	0.08	0.17	-0.01	9	62%	0.25	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Nicolas Batum	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	-0.00	0.09	-0.02	7	50%	0.13	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.15	-0.08	-0.02	11	100%	0.25	5	-0.16	1	100%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	54%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Wesley Matthews	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.15	-0.16	-0.01	-0.01	7	30%	-0.05	5	-0.11	6	67%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,0.09,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.29	0.29	0.10	0.20	0.01	11	75%	0.36	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.05	-0.03	17	67%	0.27	5	-0.13	9	89%	0.04
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.02	-0.01	13	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.05
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Joey Dorsey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	2	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	50%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	6	43%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	8	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	27.4	17.7	28.0	1.8	41.0	141.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +34.8%

POR +18.4%

TOR -1.7%

POR +3.2%

TOR -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	TOR	NBA	POR	TOR	NBA
this game	16.5	17.0	15.5	117.2	112.9	105.7
season	16.5	15.1		106.7	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.7		111.2	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.8	15.1	14.9	19.2	16.5
TOR	18.4	16.2	17.8	15.8	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Fernandez	59	57	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.27	12	-6	18	16.6	16.1	0.52	17.2	16.6	0.59
Wesley Matthews	67	65	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.37	8	-2	10	17.2	14.0	3.13	16.9	17.4	-0.54
Nicolas Batum	75	74	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.48	1	5	-4	15.7	21.2	-5.56	16.3	22.0	-5.70
Andre Miller	64	64	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	5	-4	17.0	15.0	1.98	16.5	18.8	-2.36
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	75	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.35	2	4	-2	16.8	14.3	2.50	16.5	21.4	-4.95
Patty Mills	23	21	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.06	5	1	4	15.0	17.0	-1.98	18.8	16.5	2.36
Joel Przybilla	23	24	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.08	4	2	2	16.0	16.6	-0.63	19.0	16.3	2.74
Dante Cunningham	48	45	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	9	-12	16.2	16.8	-0.65	18.1	15.8	2.29

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leandro Barbosa	32	36	0.52	-1.02	1.53	0.02	17	-23	40	18.2	16.3	1.95	16.9	16.2	0.68
Joey Dorsey	29	31	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.18	2	-8	10	20.3	15.3	4.97	17.3	16.0	1.24
Jose Calderon	57	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.35	7	-13	20	15.7	19.8	-4.10	16.5	16.5	-0.01
Julian Wright	10	10	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	3	-12	17.1	17.0	0.07	13.8	16.8	-3.01
Andrea Bargnani	77	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-7	8	16.4	23.5	-7.14	16.5	15.9	0.64
DeMar DeRozan	70	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.49	-1	-5	4	16.6	19.2	-2.63	16.1	18.1	-2.06
Ed Davis	53	51	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.11	-17	11	-28	16.9	17.3	-0.44	15.8	17.4	-1.54
Jerryd Bayless	36	38	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.22	-16	10	-26	17.8	16.4	1.38	16.4	16.5	-0.12
Sonny Weems	61	63	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.31	-14	8	-22	17.1	16.7	0.40	17.2	14.5	2.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.16,0.26,0.23,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.54,0.46,0.29,0.15,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 84, CLE 78	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.61,0.32,0.16,0.09,0.01,0	91.5%
PHX 111, SAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.27,0.32,0.33,0.25,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.6,0.53,0.28,0.1,0.01,0	91.0%
TOR 94, LAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.49,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.35,0.28,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.47,0.59,0.54,0.47,0.29,0.15,0.01,0	90.6%