NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	74		Excitement	4.5 [960]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +12.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	92		Comeback	1.3 [1113]		LVP	Jose Calderon (TOR): -33.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	13	69%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.05	21	49%	0.07	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Ed Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Alabi	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Dorsey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	67%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Julian Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	11	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trey Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.03	10	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	7	28%	-0.07	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.33	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28,-0.3,-0.3,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33	-0.27	-0.08	-0.02	15	19%	-0.16	6	-0.17	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.00	8	74%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.04	-0.04	18	44%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	53%	0.06	2	-0.04	7	57%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	10	62%	0.09	3	-0.09	6	100%	0.04
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	6	33%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	11	39%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	14	43%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.4	27.5	15.5	25.3	1.8	27.2	121.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +40.3%

MIL +5.4%

MIL +5.9%

TOR -1.3%

TOR -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	15.9	16.1	15.5	82.2	102.2	105.7
season	15.1	16.2		104.7	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.5		100.9	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.2	16.0	15.2	17.7	15.9
MIL	14.8	15.3	15.4	19.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Wright	19	18	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.06	6	-24	30	16.7	15.7	0.94	17.4	15.7	1.74
Solomon Alabi	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-19	20	20.0	15.8	4.24	21.7	15.8	5.96
Trey Johnson	18	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.10	3	-21	24	15.9	16.0	-0.07	18.8	15.4	3.40
Joey Dorsey	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-16	14	18.6	15.6	2.99	18.4	15.8	2.64
Ed Davis	48	48	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.15	-9	-9	0	15.9	16.0	-0.06	16.3	15.7	0.60
Leandro Barbosa	44	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-14	10	16.4	15.5	0.86	17.6	14.6	2.97
Andrea Bargnani	69	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.10	-10	-8	-2	15.8	16.5	-0.76	16.0	16.2	-0.19
DeMar DeRozan	75	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.10	-18	0	-18	15.7	16.9	-1.19	15.8	17.3	-1.53
Amir Johnson	49	48	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.01	-16	-2	-14	15.3	16.7	-1.31	14.9	17.4	-2.53
Jose Calderon	64	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.12	-20	2	-22	15.5	16.9	-1.38	15.0	18.7	-3.69
Sonny Weems	50	52	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.04	-21	3	-24	16.1	15.7	0.35	15.0	17.5	-2.45

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	66	67	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.06	19	-1	20	15.7	17.2	-1.52	16.2	15.3	0.86
Ersan Ilyasova	63	64	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.05	18	0	18	16.2	15.8	0.40	16.7	14.2	2.46
Corey Maggette	54	56	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.08	13	5	8	14.8	18.0	-3.24	15.2	17.2	-2.03
Andrew Bogut	59	60	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.02	13	5	8	14.9	18.3	-3.46	15.2	17.4	-2.13
Brandon Jennings	53	53	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.03	14	4	10	15.0	17.6	-2.61	15.4	16.7	-1.33
Keyon Dooling	37	37	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	14	-10	17.6	15.0	2.61	16.7	15.4	1.33
Luc Mbah a Moute	54	52	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.06	6	12	-6	16.8	14.9	1.85	15.6	16.4	-0.87
Carlos Delfino	41	40	0.10	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	13	-8	16.7	15.5	1.24	16.0	15.9	0.10
Garrett Temple	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	18	-18	20.7	15.5	5.22	17.0	15.8	1.17
Jon Brockman	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	19	-20	21.7	15.8	5.96	20.0	15.8	4.24
Chris Douglas-Roberts	9	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.02	-1	19	-20	18.6	15.8	2.78	18.0	15.7	2.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 85, MIA 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.91,0.97,0.95,1,1,1,1	95.5%
PHI 103, NYK 117	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.86,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.74,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%
NJN 82, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.9%