NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	101		Excitement	4.1 [1031]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +10.9%
Charlotte Bobcats	92		Comeback	1.0 [601]		LVP	Boris Diaw (CHA): -5.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	19	60%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.02	14	60%	0.14	3	-0.04	7	100%	0.03
Jason Kidd	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.03	8	72%	0.11	3	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	14	54%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	36%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Marion	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	56%	0.02	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.05	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	9	43%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.08	-0.01	0.08	17	54%	-0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	15	41%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	17	42%	-0.02	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Boris Diaw	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	12	46%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.5	28.8	15.7	23.8	2.0	35.0	130.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +46.2%

CHA -8.1%

DAL +7.7%

DAL +4.0%

DAL +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CHA	NBA	DAL	CHA	NBA
this game	17.8	16.1	15.5	118.8	108.2	105.7
season	15.7	16.2		108.5	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.7		106.5	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	17.5	15.8	15.5	22.5	17.8
CHA	17.6	17.7	17.2	11.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kidd	69	67	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.09	14	-5	19	16.5	23.2	-6.74	16.8	13.4	3.38
Tyson Chandler	64	61	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.12	11	-2	13	16.8	20.7	-3.84	16.9	14.0	2.93
Shawn Marion	57	56	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.14	10	-1	11	19.2	14.8	4.41	15.0	18.3	-3.35
Jason Terry	60	59	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	1	7	18.9	15.2	3.71	15.6	17.2	-1.57
Brian Cardinal	12	12	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.06	9	0	9	13.1	18.5	-5.46	15.6	16.2	-0.61
Dirk Nowitzki	58	59	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.31	-4	13	-17	18.8	15.6	3.25	15.8	16.7	-0.84
DeShawn Stevenson	44	44	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.09	3	6	-3	15.5	20.2	-4.63	17.7	14.4	3.27
Jose Juan Barea	40	43	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.22	-4	13	-17	18.6	17.0	1.60	16.0	16.2	-0.17
Brendan Haywood	21	24	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.11	-2	11	-13	20.7	16.8	3.84	14.0	16.9	-2.93

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaun Livingston	36	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.16	2	-11	13	15.4	16.6	-1.15	20.1	16.1	4.02
Eduardo Najera	40	40	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.29	5	-14	19	13.1	18.8	-5.72	19.7	16.1	3.59
Nazr Mohammed	24	24	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-6	3	13.5	17.1	-3.57	19.1	17.3	1.82
Gerald Henderson	30	30	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-4	-1	15.3	16.5	-1.25	18.8	17.2	1.58
Kwame Brown	45	44	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	2	-13	18.9	12.9	5.96	15.8	19.9	-4.15
Stephen Jackson	67	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	-6	3	16.1	16.0	0.13	18.2	16.0	2.22
D.J. Augustin	49	50	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	2	-13	16.6	15.4	1.15	16.1	20.1	-4.02
Boris Diaw	61	62	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	0	-9	17.0	13.7	3.28	17.5	18.6	-1.14
Gerald Wallace	73	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	1	-11	16.4	14.2	2.16	16.9	22.5	-5.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.32,0.24,0.26,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 108, DET 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0	95.8%
LAL 99, GSW 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.17,0.13,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.22,0.27,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
NOH 89, IND 75	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.18,0.27,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%