NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	5.7 [694]		MVP	Eddie House (MIA): +26.9%
Charlotte Bobcats	97		Comeback	1.9 [395]		LVP	D.J. Augustin (CHA): -19.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie House	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.17	0.09	-0.01	8	100%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.04	0.00	4	130%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.01	0.03	7	87%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.00	5	70%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	13	59%	0.14	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.02	17	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	20	47%	0.09	4	-0.11	7	71%	-0.01
James Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.05	-0.02	19	58%	0.21	3	-0.07	5	80%	-0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	-0.02	-0.04	10	61%	0.08	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Derrick Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Stephen Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.01	0.03	17	60%	0.10	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.04
Sherron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dominic McGuire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	0.03	10	58%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	6	31%	-0.06	5	-0.14	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.7	31.9	15.8	26.2	2.5	30.4	134.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.8%

MIA +2.5%

MIA +4.1%

MIA +6.4%

CHA -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	16.5	17.0	15.5	125.3	114.1	105.7
season	16.0	16.2		109.0	102.3
opponent	15.5	15.6		106.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	16.7	17.9	17.1	16.5
CHA	17.5	16.0	18.1	16.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	37	34	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	0	12	15.2	17.5	-2.29	16.6	17.3	-0.67
LeBron James	66	64	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	2	8	16.4	16.9	-0.53	17.2	16.2	1.00
Joel Anthony	44	42	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.14	9	3	6	16.7	16.3	0.40	17.1	16.9	0.21
Chris Bosh	73	72	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.09	8	4	4	17.0	14.1	2.90	17.0	16.9	0.08
Eddie House	38	37	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.10	5	7	-2	17.1	16.1	0.97	16.7	17.2	-0.46
Mario Chalmers	49	48	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.04	7	5	2	16.1	17.1	-0.97	17.2	16.7	0.46
James Jones	14	13	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	8	-4	14.1	17.0	-2.90	16.9	17.0	-0.08
Dwyane Wade	72	72	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	10	-8	17.1	13.7	3.43	17.0	17.2	-0.20
Erick Dampier	12	12	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.01	2	10	-8	15.5	16.7	-1.17	14.6	17.4	-2.80
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	30	31	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	11	-10	17.1	16.2	0.91	17.8	16.5	1.24

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kwame Brown	35	36	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.14	6	-18	24	16.3	17.5	-1.24	17.5	15.8	1.70
Shaun Livingston	7	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-8	4	15.9	17.1	-1.23	15.9	16.6	-0.71
Dominic McGuire	8	8	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.02	-4	-8	4	17.7	16.9	0.84	12.0	17.0	-4.96
Sherron Collins	4	4	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.01	-6	-6	0	21.5	16.8	4.73	13.2	16.7	-3.41
Derrick Brown	16	17	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-4	-4	16.9	17.0	-0.06	15.1	16.8	-1.73
D.J. Augustin	74	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-10	8	16.9	17.9	-1.06	16.7	14.9	1.83
Boris Diaw	68	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-7	2	17.0	16.9	0.06	16.8	15.4	1.41
Nazr Mohammed	8	8	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	0.10	-13	1	-14	23.0	16.4	6.64	12.0	17.0	-4.96
Gerald Wallace	76	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-6	0	16.9	18.1	-1.26	16.7	14.8	1.93
Gerald Henderson	51	53	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.13	-8	-4	-4	16.4	17.9	-1.44	16.8	16.0	0.78
Stephen Jackson	78	81	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.20	-10	-2	-8	17.1	15.4	1.70	16.6	15.7	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.08,0.07,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 110, BOS 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.4,0.33,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.09,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.4%
POR 108, PHX 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.19,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.13,0.07,0.14,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.4%
HOU 100, CHA 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.32,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.06,0,0	94.3%